Global Tropical Outlook

Western Atlantic Ocean
A strong tropical wave flared up over the weekend, but interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula quickly ended its chance for development. Otherwise, the Atlantic basin is extremely quiet as a MJO pulse is exiting to the east and resulting in sinking air across the tropical waters. A TUTT is parked over Hispaniola and is contributing to strong upper level westerly winds across much of the basin. Any tropical waves moving in this environment will be significantly sheared by the strong winds. Another interesting development is occurring in the Caribbean Sea where stronger than normal low level winds are being observed. The Colombian heat low is primarily responsible for this anomalously strong low level easterly flow, and this will also rip apart any waves moving through the Caribbean. The only location where any development could occur would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or the Gulf of Mexico where a washed out frontal boundary remains. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the waters adjacent to Florida, but development in these areas also appears unlikely.

Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific is much more active than the Atlantic as a mass of thunderstorms exists off the Central American coast between 87 and 100 degrees West longitude. Closer inspection of the convection shows a cyclonic swirl south of El Salvador, and it's very possible this could be some remnant energy of Invest 93. In any case, the environment appears favorable for some development of this system in the next couple of days with wind shear remaining light, SSTs in the lower 80s, and a moist ambient environment. A larger mass of thunderstorms is centered near 10 deg N and 96 deg W, but this area does not appear to have any type of circulation at this time. However, wind shear remains on the strong side so short-term development of this system does not appear likely.


Northwest Pacific
Very strong sinking motion is occurring in this basin since it is located east of a MJO pulse in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, short-term development looks very unlikely despite favorable shear and water temperatures in the main development region.

Indian Ocean
The most convection in any ocean basin currently resides in the Indian Ocean as a MJO pulse is moving through. This is much welcomed relief to India as they have experienced very hot, dry conditions for the last several weeks. Despite the active look on satellite, extremely strong wind shear covers most of the basin, and any tropical development appears unlikely in the short-term. However, this may be a blessing in disguise as India will receive rain without the damaging wind and flooding effects of a tropical cyclone.