Scattered Storms, Warm

It's a very muggy start to the morning with temperatures currently running in the mid to upper 70s. With the amount of difficult forecasts there have been recently, you would think this is the spring instead of summer. Today certainly qualifies as a tough forecast thanks to an ongoing convective complex across North Mississippi, Western Tennessee, and Northeast Arkansas. The current movement of this complex of storms should stay to our north, but any outflow boundary emanating from the storms could shoot our direction and increase the threat for storms later this morning and afternoon. Regardless of whether this happens, the atmosphere will be supportive of shower and thunderstorm development today due to a cold front that currently stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas. The front should advance as close as Northeast Arkansas and Western Tennessee by this evening, but the upper level flow will cause the front to stall in that general vicinity. This doesn't mean that today will be a washout, but there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, but weak wind shear will be the main inhibiting factor for severe thunderstorms.

The trickiest part of the forecast is the high temperature. Cloud cover associated with the convective complex to our north is expanding, but skies are mostly sunny around the area this morning. This is likely to last for a couple of hours before the high clouds associated with the storms to our north move into the area. I think we should be able to top out near 92, but if we stay sunny through most of the morning, we could be a couple of degrees warmer. A new complex of storms will develop tonight across Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri and will move southeast. The brunt of these storms should remain to our northwest through sunrise, but there will continue to be a chance of rain overnight. Any storms that form overnight could be strong given the enhanced wind shear, but forecast soundings show an inversion developing in the lower levels overnight which will likely prevent strong winds from reaching the surface. A threat of storms combined with cloud cover will make for another muggy night with lows dropping to 73 by the morning. The weekend continues to look pleasant with highs in the 80s.