AM Showers, Afternoon Clearing

Today is one of those rare days where you can throw out every computer model, and instead, use satellite, radar, and a little intuition to forecast. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, being on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge can sometimes yield a few forecasting surprises. That's certainly the case this morning as a dying convective complex that formed across Missouri and Arkansas ahead of a weak cold front overnight continues diving to the south and east. We've dodged the brunt of this complex, but a few light to moderate showers will be possible through most of the morning. I doubt we will have much rain to contend with this afternoon because strong subsidence in the wake of the upper level shortwave will likely squash any widespread development. That being said, an isolated thundershower is not out of the realm of possibility late this afternoon or evening, especially with the aforementioned frontal boundary stalling to our north. The back edge of the clouds is still located across the Bootheel of Missouri, and on its current movement, we'll likely see clearing skies after 1 p.m. The combination of the clouds and rain will keep highs below normal today as we should top out around 86 this afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear this evening as lows dip to near 71 tomorrow morning.