Brief Tropical Thoughts

I'll post a more extensive discussion tomorrow, but I wanted to post a few quick thoughts on the current tropical activity.
-The MJO-related upswing in the main development region has finally resulted in some excitement in the tropics.
-T.D. 2 has shown some signs of becoming better organized this evening as evidenced by the satellite presentation and increase in wind speeds.
-Significant short-term development appears unlikely given the marginal SSTs and the amount of dry air and Saharan dust surrounding the depression. However, a small amount of strengthening could result in the first tropical storm of the year being named (Ana) by tomorrow.
-I get the feeling this system will recurve harmlessly out to sea as it feels a weakness in the ridge by the end of the weekend and early next week.
-Two other waves in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles bear some watching. However, these waves are encountering a slightly more hostile environment in the eastern Caribbean. Until the South American heat low can relax, development of either of these waves will be of little concern in the short-term.
-The wave to watch may be the one behind T.D. 2. that is emerging off the coast of Africa. Global models indicate this system will develop and could pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles next week. I don't like the European model's position at 240 hours; the East Coast should keep a watchful eye on this system over the next week. Of some interest, global models are in agreement with the development of a trough over eastern Asia by the end of this week.