Sunny, Slightly Warmer

This is the coolest morning of the season with temperatures running in the upper 40s to near 50. We'll rebound nicely into the 70s this afternoon under sunny skies. Our weather pattern will quickly be changing thanks to a strong upper air trough moving through the Intermountain West. Our upper level trough that brought the cooler weather will have less influence today, and we'll even be on the edge of upper level ridging by late tonight. This will induce weak warming aloft, which will equate to slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. In fact, highs should top out near 76 this afternoon. As the western trough continues translating eastward, lee side cyclogenesis will commence late this afternoon in northeast Colorado. As a result, winds will begin to veer to the southeast overnight, which should keep temperatures a little warmer overnight. Lows should be near 52 tomorrow morning.

Perfect Fall Weather

Soil moisture played a big role overnight in keeping temperatures in the lower 50s as opposed to the upper 40s. Still, it's a crisp morning, and you may even need a light jacket if you're headed to work or an early class. Today will be the coolest day of the week as an upper air trough continues to deepen to our east. Weak cold air advection aloft will continue throughout the day, which should prevent deep mixing from taking place. As a result, highs will top out near 74 despite full sunshine. Winds will be slightly weaker than yesterday but still gusting near 15 mph at times this afternoon. Another good radiational setup will be in the cards with light winds, clear skies, and very dry air. I don't say it's ideal because of the residual soil moisture. This will likely keep lows in the upper 40s instead of the mid 40s. Look for the low tomorrow morning to be a chilly 48.

Reinforcing Shot of Cool, Dry Air

The cold front that swept through on Saturday provided a nice fall day yesterday. A secondary frontal boundary that is approaching northwest Mississippi will push through the area later this morning and will supply us with some cool and dry air. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase to between 10-15 mph and dew points will rapidly drop into the 50s by early this afternoon. No rain will occur today, but a few clouds will accompany the front this morning. Although the surface front will move through later this morning, the frontal boundary above the surface will lag behind until late this afternoon. This will keep low-level temperatures rather warm, and highs should be able to top out near 80. By this evening, skies will be clear and winds should begin to subside as the boundary layer decouples. Temperatures should rapidly drop into the 60s by 8 p.m. If the soils weren't completely saturated, I would feel confident that lows could easily drop into the 40s. However, I think this will probably keep low temperatures near 50 tomorrow morning.

Warm and Humd; Small Chance of PM Storm

We were fortunate enough to dodge most of the rain yesterday, but we extended our rainy day streak to 11 days. A weak frontal boundary is now located on the Mississippi/Alabama state line, but the air mass change is hardly noticeable. A true cold front stretches from eastern Texas northeast through eastern Missouri. The closed upper low that has been spinning over the Plains states for a few days will open up today and move slowly eastward. The main lift from it will not affect our area until tomorrow, but the true cold front to our west may still generate enough lift for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, we should see more in the way of sunshine today, so temperatures will top out near 85 this afternoon. Any storms that develop this afternoon should dissipate by 10 p.m., which means Bulldog Bash should go off without a hitch. Mostly cloudy skies will remain in place with temperatures dropping to near 71 tomorrow morning.

There are major model differences regarding tomorrow morning's weather. The NAM and GFS suggest that rain will be a problem for the MSU/LSU game. However, the UKMET and regional and global GEM suggest tomorrow morning is relatively dry. With decent dynamics in place and a true frontal boundary pushing toward the area, I would be shocked if there aren't showers and a few thunderstorms that develop tomorrow morning. I suggest to plan for some rain for tailgating and the game. After the front moves through, much drier air will filter into the state and provide some pleasant morning temperatures.

Recent Rainfall Statistics

A combination of a tropical low and two cut-off upper level lows have made for a very wet couple of weeks around the area and region. My CoCoRaHS station has collected rain every day since September 14. Since that day, a total of 8.8" has fallen! Here are some select monthly totals from gauges around Oktibbeha County:
MSU Climate Lab (Hilbun Hall): 8.74"
MS-OK-1 (0.8 mi SW of Starkville): 8.50"
MS-OK-4 (2.7 mi WSW of Starkville): 7.90"
MS-OK-6 (5.3 mi S of Starkville): 12.21"
MS-OK-10 (7.2 mi SW of Starkville): 10.82"
MS-OK-11 (1.4 mi N of Starkville): 7.28"
MS-OK-19 (2.2 mi E of Starkville): 9.12"

It finally appears the wet weather will end by Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the area. A slightly cooler and much drier air mass will advect into the region for several days. The next chance of rain likely won't arrive until the end of next week.

Wet Streak Continues

A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Attala and Choctaw Counties. This area of rain shouldn't affect the county, but additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again today. Despite the model guidance suggesting a rather dry dry, I just don't get the idea we'll be that dry today. A weak frontal boundary remains located across western Mississippi, and this feature will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning later this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will dominate again today, and persistence seems to be the way to go with highs topping out near 84. Showers should come to an end by 9 p.m., but mostly cloudy skies will keep lows near 71 tomorrow morning.

Another Chance for Rain

A weak frontal boundary located along the Mississippi River this morning will push slowly eastward today and should be located between Starkville and Winona this evening. There are not a lot of upper level dynamics working with this front, so surface convergence alone will be the primary lifting mechanism. None of the models have a real good handle on the current surface features, but I expect another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms again today. Satellite images suggest that a few breaks in the clouds should occur later this morning, which should boost temperatures into the low to mid 80s today. In fact, highs should top out around 84 this afternoon. Rain chances will continue through 9 p.m., but we should be dry afterward. Lows should drop to 70 tomorrow morning. If you're tired of the cloudy and wet weather, then look forward to some cooler and drier weather early next week!

Scattered Showers & Storms

It doesn't seem like it will ever stop raining, and unfortunately, this trend will continue today as a cold front slowly advances toward the state. This front currently stretches from Minnesota to Fort Smith, AR to the Big Bend of Texas. By late tonight, the front should be just west of the Mississippi River. However, the front will outrun the cut-off low spinning across the central Plains. Instead of heights typically falling in advance of a cold front, heights will actually rise throughout the day as the cut-off low digs southward. It will be interesting to see whether the surface convergence with the front or the warming temperatures aloft will win out today. Either way, this argues for less widespread rain today, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will still develop beginning late this morning. I'm not expecting any severe weather today since vertical wind shear will be much less impressive than yesterday.

Patchy fog is around the area this morning so use caution going to work or school. The fog should dissipate by 9 a.m. and give way to a few peaks of sunshine this morning and afternoon. Accordingly, highs should be able to top out near 84 this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should dissipate by 9 p.m., but skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight. Although the chance for rain is not zero overnight, I think we should remain on the dry side. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 71.

Rain This Morning & Afternoon

The good news is that the upper level low and surface low that plagued our weather for the last week has vanished from the weather maps. Our attention will now turn to a trough digging into the northern Plains that will become cut-off by tonight. This feature has resulted in southwesterly flow aloft, and subtle disturbances will move through the southwest flow throughout the day. With a very moist air mass in place, showers and thunderstorms should have no problems developing again. In fact, heavy rain and thunderstorms are ongoing just to our southeast this morning. It looks like the northwest edge of this complex will affect Starkville and eastern Oktibbeha County through 9:00 a.m. Once this exits, we'll likely get a dry period for a few hours before afternoon thunderstorms develop after 2 p.m. Any storms that form this afternoon could be on the strong side since we have a little more vertical wind shear in place. Highs should top out around 83 this afternoon. Any showers that develop this afternoon should clear our area by 10 p.m. I believe we'll stay dry overnight, but all eyes will quickly turn to the west as a cold front will arrive tomorrow and spell the chance for more rain. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 71.

Soggy and Warm

It's another muggy morning as a warm, humid air mass remains entrenched across the region. The culprit remains the surface low in Louisiana, but the upper level low that has been associated with it should weaken considerably today. However, rain chances will remain high again today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing to our west this morning, but I expect additional showers to develop this afternoon with the best chances for rain to our south and west. The storms that develop to our south should move northward and will likely be knocking on our door step late this afternoon and evening. Cloudy skies this morning should become broken by noon with highs topping out near 85 this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should settle down and move north of our area by 11 p.m. Skies will remain cloudy overnight so lows tomorrow morning will be near 71.

Afternoon Storms, Warm Again

Same song and dance again on the weather map this morning. The persistent surface and upper lows to our west will remain anchored over the Arklatex today. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are impacting northern Mississippi this morning. It appears that the best chance for rain will be to our west and north, but a few scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop around our area this afternoon and evening. Skies will be a mixture of sun and clouds throughout the day, and this should allow temperatures to top out near 85. Showers and thunderstorms should mostly remain to our north overnight, but there will still be a chance of rain until 1 a.m. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 71.

Wet and Warm

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains to the area already this morning. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly to our north. Although a few showers will continue to be possible throughout the morning hours, We should get a break in the rain until this afternoon. Needless to say, these tropical air masses are quite difficult to forecast, especially the timing of the rain and the amount of cloud cover. More breaks in the clouds occurred yesterday than I expected, and as a result, highs were in the mid 80s. The same trend will likely continue again today with mostly cloudy skies this morning and several breaks in the clouds late this morning and early this afternoon. Highs should warm to near 80 by noon and top out around 84. As we warm up, however, the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will only increase by the middle afternoon and evening hours. The rain chances will continue to be aided by a slow moving surface low located across southern Arkansas. High precipitable water, weak wind shear, deep layer moisture, some instability, and a large warm layer will all contribute to a high precipitation efficiency with the showers and thunderstorms. This means that any storms that move through will drop a lot of rain in a very short period of time. Once again, we'll likely have to deal with more showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lows should be near 71 tomorrow morning.

Wet Again

Pack the umbrella again today before heading to work or school because it's going to be wet. A band of light to moderate rain is currently moving through the county this morning and should exit after 8:30 a.m. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see additional development throughout the morning as there seems to be a favorable burst point to our south. We may get a short break from the rain early this afternoon, but additional showers and thunderstorms will develop by late this afternoon and evening. Once again, extensive cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures anomalously cool with highs only reaching 80. Most of the rain should exit to our north and dissipate after 9 p.m., but showers will likely re-develop overnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 72.

A Good Soaking Expected

The radar is quiet this morning except for a few light showers that will move through the county by 8:30 a.m. Responsible for this wet pattern is an almost stationary upper level low in conjunction with a slowing moving surface low over southeast Texas. The surface low will move into western Louisiana throughout the day, and these two features will generate enough lift for another wet day. I expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop after 2 p.m. Given the very soupy air mass in place, some of these showers and storms will likely produce heavy rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies and rain developing this afternoon, I expect temperatures to be held below average again today around 81. Rain chances will continue to be high this evening and overnight with lows tomorrow morning near 71. We've got some cooler weather to look forward to by the middle to end of next week as an actual trough looks to dig into the eastern third of the country.

Wet Again

It seems like it's been quite a while since we started a morning in the 70s, but cloud cover and moderate winds have kept temperatures in the lower 70s this morning. A few showers are located to our southwest and are slowly moving eastward. It's possible these could impact portions of southern Oktibbeha County after 8 a.m. The surface and upper air charts are extremely messy this morning. Aloft, an upper low continues to spin to our northeast, but this will be moving away from the region so it should have less influence on sensible weather. By the end of today, a new upper low should be forming across Texas, which will play a major role in our weather next week. Associated with the upper low in Texas will be the formation of a surface low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.

The brunt of these systems should not have much influence on our weather today. What will have an impact on our weather is the old boundary that has been over us for the last couple of days. It will still be around this afternoon, but it will be a little further south. Still, I expect more showers and thunderstorms today so be sure to take the umbrella to work or school. With mostly cloudy skies for a good chunk of the day, highs should top out near 83 this afternoon. By this evening, slightly drier air will filter into the area as the aforementioned surface boundary will be further to our south. However, extensive cloud cover will still keep temperatures around 66 tomorrow morning.

The weekend forecast is a little tough! Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The best chance for rain this weekend appears to be Sunday afternoon as the system from Texas moves our direction. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 80s.

Scattered Afternoon Storms

Extensive cloud cover dominates the skies this morning, and a few showers and thunderstorms are actually occurring just to our south and east. These will push to the southeast through 8:00 a.m., but more showers and thunderstorms will likely develop later today. I don't think the coverage will be as great as yesterday since instability values will be much lower. However, we still have subtle upper level disturbances moving through flow aloft and the presence of a diffuse boundary at the surface. This should be just enough to get some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop after 1 p.m. With mostly cloudy skies today, I think highs will top out near 86. Showers and thunderstorms should end by 9 p.m., but extensive cloud cover will remain in place tonight with lows dropping to near 68 tomorrow morning.

Scattered Storms, Continued Warm

A convective complex to our northwest ejected a few cirrus clouds that have passed through the area this morning and have helped keep temperatures in the upper 60s. This convective complex will remain to our west today and will weaken as it moves south southeast into Arkansas. However, it will likely throw additional clouds in our direction today. With increasing precipitable water, a weak boundary over the area, and subtle upper air disturbances moving through today, there should be a slightly greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon than compared to yesterday. Still, highs should be able to top out near 87 today. Any showers or storms that form this afternoon should dissipate by 9 p.m. Otherwise, skies will remain partly cloudy overnight with lows dropping to 66.

Warm and Dry

I sure hope you didn't use my weekend forecast for any planning purposes because it was one of the worst I've ever produced. Temperatures are starting out rather pleasant in the mid 60s. A few patches of fog are present this morning, but this should rapidly dissipate by 8 a.m. Skies should be mostly sunny this morning as temperatures warm into the lower 80s by noon. A few cumulus will develop after noon along with the potential for a few cirrus clouds from a convective complex across Kansas. Highs should top out near 89 this afternoon. Rain chances are very iffy today due to a lack of uplift and low precipitable water. I think we will stay dry, but one or two rogue storms will be possible this afternoon, especially to our north. Skies will be be partly cloudy overnight with temperatures dropping to near 66 tomorrow morning.

Afternoon Clouds, Warm

Other than a few passing clouds this morning, skies are clear across the area with temperatures in the lower 60s. We should rebound nicely this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The best upper air forcing will remain well to our northwest today so it will be tough for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. This will be compounded by the fact that mid-level temperatures will be warming, which will act to cap any convection that tries to develop. Highs the last couple of days have struggled to reach maximum potential, likely due to a shallower mixing depth. I'll continue with this line of thinking and forecast a high of 86 this afternoon. A few clouds will linger through the overnight hours, but we should stay dry. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 64.

The first half of the holiday weekend is looking nice and warm. We should stay dry tomorrow but warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s. It looks like we stand a good shot of getting wet Sunday or Monday and likely both days. That's not to say that each day will be a washout, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around both days. Highs should be in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday and lower 80s on Monday.

Isolated PM Storms, Warmer

Low clouds and patchy fog have kept temperatures in the mid 60s this morning. The fog should dissipate after 9 a.m., but use caution driving to work or school before this time. A large convective complex is moving through Arkansas and northern Louisiana this morning, but this should remain to our southwest today. In the upper levels, the disturbance that was around yesterday is to our east and will continue moving east. Subsidence on the backside of this feature will keep us dry until late this afternoon and evening as a new disturbance approaches the area. There should be enough lift to generate a few isolated thunderstorms, but most areas will remain dry. Skies will be partly cloudy this afternoon with highs topping out near 85. Skies will slowly clear tonight, but middle and high level clouds should increase after 2 a.m. as a stronger upper level disturbance approaches the state from the northwest. Lows should be able to drop to 63 tomorrow morning.

Mostly Cloudy, Light Showers Possible

Cloud cover had an even greater impact overnight than I anticipated as temperatures are running in the upper 60s. Despite the upper level look on the weather maps this morning, our weather pattern is a bit more complex than it seems. In the upper levels, a disturbance is approaching the area and should enhance uplift this afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface, an inverted trough is approaching from the east. These two entities will act in tandem to generate a few isolated afternoon showers today. Skies will be mostly cloudy today, but temperatures should be able to top out near 80 this afternoon. However, if skies remain cloudy all day and there is greater coverage of precipitation than I expect, highs will be a couple of degrees cooler. Although model guidance doesn't show much in the way of rain overnight, I still think a slight chance of light showers is warranted with lift being generated from the surface and aloft. With cloudy skies overnight, lows should drop to near 65 tomorrow morning.

Beautiful Day, Increasing Clouds Overnight

Despite a weak pressure gradient keeping wind speeds up through the night, temperatures are generally running in the upper 50s to near 60 this morning. Northwesterly flow aloft and northeasterly flow at the surface will make for another pleasant day with abundant sunshine and low humidity. A few patchy afternoon cumulus will prevent full sunshine, but these will have little impact on the sensible weather. Highs this afternoon should top out around 83. Tonight's forecast is a little tricky as an upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow will approach the area. Model guidance really ramps up the lower level and mid-level moisture in advance of this feature, and in fact, some models are indicating the chance for light showers overnight. With northeasterly winds overnight, I'm not completely buying the fact that low-level moisture increases as much as the models suggest. With the deepest moisture staying to our east, I think this will also be where the best chance for rain will be. However, I can't completely rule out the chance of an isolated shower overnight. Increasing cloudiness will begin by this evening and thicken overnight, which should keep lows around 64 tomorrow morning.