Wet and Warm

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains to the area already this morning. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly to our north. Although a few showers will continue to be possible throughout the morning hours, We should get a break in the rain until this afternoon. Needless to say, these tropical air masses are quite difficult to forecast, especially the timing of the rain and the amount of cloud cover. More breaks in the clouds occurred yesterday than I expected, and as a result, highs were in the mid 80s. The same trend will likely continue again today with mostly cloudy skies this morning and several breaks in the clouds late this morning and early this afternoon. Highs should warm to near 80 by noon and top out around 84. As we warm up, however, the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will only increase by the middle afternoon and evening hours. The rain chances will continue to be aided by a slow moving surface low located across southern Arkansas. High precipitable water, weak wind shear, deep layer moisture, some instability, and a large warm layer will all contribute to a high precipitation efficiency with the showers and thunderstorms. This means that any storms that move through will drop a lot of rain in a very short period of time. Once again, we'll likely have to deal with more showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lows should be near 71 tomorrow morning.