Sunny, Warming Trend Begins

A very strong storm system moving through the Gulf of Mexico brought heavy rains to the state on Friday, followed by much colder weather on Saturday. It was still cool yesterday, but at least the sun made a return appearance. The sun should continue in full force today as our surface weather pattern is dominated by a high pressure in the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, generally flat westerly flow will be the rule as a strong storm system begins to dig into the western states. As the flow has turned more westerly aloft, a weak warm air advection regime has begun, which will allow highs to top out around 56 this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds in place tonight, we should see another chilly evening. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 31.

The big news in the weather world will be the big pre-Christmas storm that will affect much of the eastern half of the nation. With the primary surface low moving across Missouri, severe weather will be more of a threat than winter weather. However, like the overwhelming majority of cool season events, the threat for severe weather is contingent upon needed buoyancy for our area. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that this will be a very dynamic storm system with very favorable wind shear profiles. On the other hand, a very narrow ribbon of weak buoyancy (MLCAPE <500 J/kg) is forecast to be present into southwest Alabama. Regardless of the severity of the convection, late Wednesday through Thursday figures to be a wet period across the state. After the passage of the storm system, much colder air will filter into the state, and indeed, Christmas Day and Saturday will feature highs in the 40s.