Wet & Windy

As advertised, a very strong cold front will approach the region today and create a very wet and windy day. The cold front currently stretches from Texarkana, AR southward to the Sabine River Valley in Texas. Very heavy showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are located ahead of the front across Arkansas and Louisiana. As the day progresses, this shield of precipitation will slowly move eastward. Rain chances for our area will begin to ramp up after noon, but the heaviest rain should hold off until this evening. We should see some broken cloudiness this morning, but cloud cover will only increase as we head into the afternoon hours. Highs should top out around 62 this afternoon. As a result of a tight pressure gradient, very strong southeasterly winds could gust as high as 40 mph late this afternoon and evening! Be very careful if you're driving a high profile vehicle, particularly along I-20/59 and I-65 between Montgomery and Mobile.

The heaviest rain and strongest thunderstorm activity should occur after 6 p.m. The main brunt of the rain should end by 11 p.m., but additional showers will be possible overnight as the upper level disturbance pivots across the region. In addition to strong winds, thunderstorms could be another potential hazard tonight. Although wind shear will be extremely favorable for severe weather, the very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE ~200 J/kg) will not be able to compensate for the shear. As a result, storms should be sheared apart. However, given the strength of the shear, a dynamically forced line of storms could be on the strong side. I think the severe activity will remain to our south and west. The cold front should pass through the area after midnight with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s and 40s. The low tomorrow morning should be near 44.

Christmas Day is shaping up to be cloudy, drizzly, windy, and very cold. The warmest temperature of the day will be at midnight, but the afternoon high tomorrow will be in the lower 40s. Gusty west winds will make the temperature feel much colder all day. Additionally, some lingering moisture associated with the upper level disturbance will squeeze out some drizzle in the morning hours. Although some outlets are suggesting a chance of snow flurries tomorrow, I don't see this since there will be very meager moisture in the snow growth region. I would like to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas!