Mostly Sunny, Breezy, & Much Colder

A few light showers occurred overnight, and temperatures are chilly again this morning with temperatures near 40. We'll be on the convergent side of an exiting upper level trough, and as a result, we should have to a chance to dry out for several days. The dry weather will come with a price though. That price will be the coldest air of the season, which is poised to invade the state tonight and may last for at least a week. In the meantime, skies are partly cloudy this morning, but a few more clouds may pass through later this morning. Once the clouds pass to our south, the afternoon should feature an abundance of sunshine. With weak cold air advection and NNW winds coming off a snow pack to our north, highs won't rise much today. In fact, we'll only top out around 44 this afternoon. Winds may gust over 20 mph today, and this will make temperatures feel even colder.

Skies will be clear tonight and the air will be very dry with dew points dropping into the upper teens by sunrise tomorrow morning. The only negative factor for ideal radiational cooling will be winds remaining between 5 and 10 mph through the morning hours. However, upstream observations this morning show that lows are colder than what was forecast by MOS guidance yesterday. Therefore, I'm going to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 26 tomorrow morning.

The weather to start the new year will feature highs and lows at least 10-15 degrees below normal. While that's not exactly record breaking, the duration of the cold period will be impressive. We'll also have to watch late next week for the potential for a winter storm. A strong upper level short wave will drop southward out of Canada and will set the stage for some accumulating snow across the Deep South. This is still almost 6 days away, but there is general agreement on the upper air pattern next week. This pattern would certainly support a high likelihood for snow somewhere in the region, but subtle timing and placement differences of the upper air features preclude a high confidence forecast for a more specific threat area. Nevertheless, this will be something to watch closely over the next several days. After the passage of the late week storm system, even colder air will likely invade the region for the following weekend.