Clouds Thicken, Slight Chance of Snow Overnight

High clouds will thicken throughout the day as a storm system in Texas moves eastward into the Gulf of Mexico. The leading edge of the precipitation shield is approaching Northeast Louisiana, and this should remain off to our south and west through the daylight hours. It will be chilly again today as the cold dome of high pressure to our north refuses to relent its grip across the region. Highs should top out around 44 this afternoon. Overnight, synoptic scale lift will become more favorable for precipitation, but dry air in the lowest 5,000 feet will have to moisten up before any precipitation can reach the surface. As the rain shield approaches from Mississippi, it will take a few hours before any precipitation can reach the surface. However, the atmosphere should be sufficiently moistened after 3 a.m. for light snow to fall. Any snow that falls could stick on grassy and elevated surfaces, but the relatively warm concrete should prevent major travel issues through sunrise. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 31.

As expected for the past couple of days, the models have trended northward with the surface low. Given the consistency of the Canadian and European models, it's hard to discredit either one. I think the Global Canadian is still too far north, and in fact, the Canadian ensembles actually place the surface low very close to the European's track. Therefore, I think the European solution is the best way to go, and based on it, I have adjusted my snow totals upward slightly. I expect between 1-1.5" to accumulate in the city, but up to 2" may fall in the southern part of the county. Some roads may become slick tomorrow, so use caution if you have to drive to work. I won't be surprised to hear about area school closings tomorrow once the NWS issues a winter weather advisory.

Once this system exits, we'll begin to turn our attention to the north where cold air is poised to invade the state next week in the wake of a Clipper. I think the NWS highs next week are way too warm. I'll discuss that and the winter weather threat in more detail tomorrow morning.