Snow Overnight, Near Blizzard Conditions Possible

Big changes are in store today as a strong trough approaches from the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front currently stretches from the Lower Peninsula of Michigan to Central Kansas to Morton, TX along with a weak surface low near Plainview. Due to the anafrontal nature of the front, almost all of the precipitation is well behind the front across Colorado, Nebraska, and Northwest Kansas. There are a few patches of drizzle across the Panhandle, but the main brunt of the precipitation will arrive overnight. In the meantime, skies will become increasingly cloudy as the day progresses. The warmest temperatures of the day occurred at midnight, but temperatures this afternoon will warm slightly to around 44. With a tightening pressure gradient at the surface, winds could gust as high as 35 mph, especially after 5 p.m.

By this evening, the frontal boundary should be well south of the area with an a surface low just north of Midland. This system will deepen and move eastward as strong dynamics eject eastward. As DPVA impinges of the Panhandle, deep layer ascent will support a band of snow that will be moving into the area from the northwest and New Mexico. Once the snow begins after 10 p.m., it should last through Saturday afternoon. The snow will increase in intensity between midnight and 4 a.m. as impressive omega lifts abundant moisture into the snow growth region. Snow ratios will range from 12:1 at the onset of the event to 25:1 at the end of the event. This will support a wide range of totals across the area, but Amarillo will likely end up with around 6" of snow after accounting for above freezing ground temperatures that will initially reduce accumulations. NNE winds will become very strong tonight with gusts possibly up to 50 mph, particularly after midnight. This will cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow and present significant travel problems. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 23, but strong winds will likely result in wind chills near 0 at times.

Mostly Sunny, Mild

In advance of a potent trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, an upper level ridge will become established across the entire region today. At the surface, weak low pressure in eastern Colorado and high pressure across the Texas Gulf Coast will produce a breezy southerly flow with some gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. This will result in a beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. A few high clouds could pass across the area at times today, but these should stay mostly north of Amarillo. Highs this afternoon will top out around 69. Clouds will be thickening and lowering this evening as the trough digs into the Southwest U.S. Ahead of a cold front approaching the Panhandles, the combination of increasing clouds and southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures tomorrow morning with lows around 40.

Mostly Sunny, Pleasant

The strong shortwave trough and associated rain shield that affected the region yesterday is slowly rotating eastward across the Permian Basin. The Panhandle region will experience deep layer subsidence today in the wake of this system and as high pressure builds in from the north. As a result, clouds should dissipate shortly and allow for an abundant supply of sunshine after 9 a.m. Highs will top out around 58. North northwest winds will be breezy today with some gusts up to 20 mph possible. Another disturbance will approach the area from the north tonight, but there will be no moisture to work with. Therefore, skies will be mostly clear with light winds and dry air, which should allow lows to dip down to 32 tomorrow morning.

Rain This Morning, Mixing With Snow This Afternoon

Upper air analysis shows a shortwave trough centered over Southwest New Mexico. The main forcing associated with the shortwave will move through the Trans-Pecos region, but some weak disturbances will rotate around the trough. These disturbances have resulted in some areas of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this morning across the region, but mainly light rain has fallen so far in Amarillo. Rain will continue this morning and will likely increase in intensity. Rain and clouds will keep temperatures on the chilly side today with temperatures slowly dropping into the mid 30s by this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that wet snow will begin to mix with the rain around noon and then transition to all snow this afternoon as wet bulb zero heights drop under 1,200 feet. It's possible that there could be some minor accumulations (i.e. a dusting or less) of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces, but the recent warm temperatures have allowed soil temperatures to increase. Another forecast consideration today will be the strong northeast winds, which could gust as high as 30 mph. The snow should by 10 p.m., but clouds will hang tough overnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 32.

Sunny, Windy, & Warmer

A closed upper air trough will spin over the Mid South today while high pressure over Central Colorado will produce downsloping northwest flow at the surface. The combination of the two will allow for sunnier, drier, and warmer weather today. Although highs will top out around 58, that will still be about 3 degrees below normal. It will also be windy today with some gusts up to 40 mph possible this afternoon. Decoupling will occur after sunset and winds will begin to subside. With light winds, dry air, and clear skies, strong radiational cooling will occur tonight. In fact, lows will likely be around 29 tomorrow morning.

Showers/Storms This Morning, Windy This Afternoon

A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just west of Amarillo this morning. A strong closed low over New Mexico and the left front quadrant of a cyclonic jet are promoting large-scale ascent over the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a Pacific cold front is located along the New Mexico/Texas state line. All of these features will move eastward through this morning and afternoon, and it should allow the rain and thunderstorms to end from west to east. Any storms that develop today could be strong with small hail possible due to mid-level instability. The front should pass through Amarillo after 1 p.m. with some breaks in the clouds possible this afternoon. As a result, temperatures should be able to top out near 60. It will be breezy this morning, but winds will really gust once the front sweeps through. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will return before midnight as the upper air disturbance rotates through. A few showers are not out of the question, but these should remain to the north of Amarillo. Skies will gradually clear after midnight, which will allow temperatures to drop near 37 tomorrow morning.

Sunny This Afternoon, Continued Mild

Some low clouds have developed across the Panhandles this morning as low-level moisture has increased in response to the low-level jet. A potent shortwave trough is passing to the north in Colorado this morning, and once it pulls away this afternoon, slightly drier air will begin to filter back into the area. It does appear that clouds will hang around through 11 a.m., but skies should be mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures will warm above average again with downsloping winds compensating for cooler temperatures as compared to yesterday at 700 mb. The end result should be highs topping out near 69. Winds will be strong again today with gusts over 25 mph. There should be enough dry air in place tonight to prevent fog formation. However, clear skies and and relatively light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly once the sun sets. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 32.

Sunny & Mild

It's a quiet, cool morning with some patchy areas of fog around the area. This should dissipate after 9 a.m. with mostly sunny skies thereafter. A potent shortwave trough over Nevada looks to stay to our north through the period, but this disturbance will initiate a weak lee side low in Colorado. As a result, the pressure gradient will tighten and wind gusts could be in the upper 20s this afternoon. It will be another pleasant day with highs topping out around 67. Skies will be mostly clear this evening, but a few high clouds may clip the northern part of the Panhandle. Otherwise, some patchy areas of fog could develop again after 2 a.m. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 37.

A Few A.M. Clouds, Warmer

Some patchy freezing fog and a few high clouds are evident this morning along a building upper ridge over the High Plains. These clouds and fog should move to the east and dissipate later this morning. After they do so, a beautiful day is on tap as high pressure shifts into Missouri and allows for southeasterly surface winds. Highs should be able to top out around 60. Winds will become breezy this afternoon as mixing takes place, and some gusts could approach 25 mph. Skies should be mostly clear tonight, but winds will likely be stronger overnight. This should prevent any fog from developing, but if winds consistently remain under 10 mph, some patchy areas of fog may develop. Lows will dip down to 33.

Sunny, Warmer

There are some patchy areas of fog and low stratus across the eastern Panhandles this morning, but these should dissipate after 10 a.m. A very nice day is in store as we'll be on the eastern fringe of an amplifying upper ridge over the Rockies. Convergent flow aloft is sustaining two areas of high pressure over Colorado and Kansas. Deep layer subsidence and weak downsloping will allow for abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs should top out around 55 this afternoon. Winds will be weak this morning, but they will likely become breezy this afternoon with some gusts up to 20 mph. I am worried that some high clouds in the Desert Southwest associated with the southern branch of the jet will graze the area tonight. Still, skies should be mostly clear with light winds and dry air. This will result in decent radiational cooling conditions, which will allow lows to dip down to 32.

Mostly Cloudy, Cool

A powerful upper air system that moved through over the weekend has exited to our east this morning. In its wake, wrap around clouds, light rain and snow, and cold air advection will keep temperatures on the chilly side today. Some light rain will be possible through 11 a.m., but I think we'll likely remain dry. Forecasting the dissipation of the cloud cover will be the key to today's temperatures. As the upper air system moves into eastern Texas we should see clouds slowly break up around lunchtime, but I am worried that a weak upslope component to the wind could allow clouds to hang tough through the afternoon. I'll be optimistic and forecast some breaks in the clouds after noon, but it will still remain mostly cloudy. Highs should top out around 44 this afternoon, which will be 14 degrees below normal. Winds will be breezy this morning, but should subside throughout the day as high pressure begins to build into the region. Fog will likely be a concern tonight, particularly after 10 p.m. Lows tomorrow morning will dip down to 29. We should get into a warmer pattern by mid week as a trough moves into California and amplifies a ridge across the High Plains. Highs should be back into the 60s by Wednesday. Thursday may be an exception as cool upslope flow develops, but highs should rebound nicely in time for the weekend.