Snow Overnight, Near Blizzard Conditions Possible

Big changes are in store today as a strong trough approaches from the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front currently stretches from the Lower Peninsula of Michigan to Central Kansas to Morton, TX along with a weak surface low near Plainview. Due to the anafrontal nature of the front, almost all of the precipitation is well behind the front across Colorado, Nebraska, and Northwest Kansas. There are a few patches of drizzle across the Panhandle, but the main brunt of the precipitation will arrive overnight. In the meantime, skies will become increasingly cloudy as the day progresses. The warmest temperatures of the day occurred at midnight, but temperatures this afternoon will warm slightly to around 44. With a tightening pressure gradient at the surface, winds could gust as high as 35 mph, especially after 5 p.m.

By this evening, the frontal boundary should be well south of the area with an a surface low just north of Midland. This system will deepen and move eastward as strong dynamics eject eastward. As DPVA impinges of the Panhandle, deep layer ascent will support a band of snow that will be moving into the area from the northwest and New Mexico. Once the snow begins after 10 p.m., it should last through Saturday afternoon. The snow will increase in intensity between midnight and 4 a.m. as impressive omega lifts abundant moisture into the snow growth region. Snow ratios will range from 12:1 at the onset of the event to 25:1 at the end of the event. This will support a wide range of totals across the area, but Amarillo will likely end up with around 6" of snow after accounting for above freezing ground temperatures that will initially reduce accumulations. NNE winds will become very strong tonight with gusts possibly up to 50 mph, particularly after midnight. This will cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow and present significant travel problems. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 23, but strong winds will likely result in wind chills near 0 at times.