The last thing residents of South Texas wanted to see was the center of Dolly re-form to the north. That's exactly what happened overnight, and Dolly is now back over very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. The quick strengthening I expected to happen just before landfall in the Yucatan never materialized because Dolly's inner core was never fully developed. That won't be the case much longer, and I expect a steady strengthening phase over the next couple of days. Wind shear is weak (5-10 knots) and SSTs are quite warm (mid 80s). Additionally, Dolly will be traversing deep, warm water and over loop eddies in the western Gulf of Mexico that may enhance intensification before landfall. The only factor that may inhibit a rapid intensification phase is the deficiency of the tropical cyclone heat potential. This needs to be a bit higher to support the rapid intensification seen with hurricanes in the last several years. Regardless, the thermodynamic and dynamic environment in the Gulf of Mexico is supportive of a hurricane and possibly a major hurricane. I think that Dolly will be a strong Category 2 hurricane at landfall.
The next question is where will Dolly make landfall? The last couple of computer model runs have shifted the track of Dolly north into Texas. The 12Z NAM takes Dolly near Corpus Christi Wednesday morning. The 06Z HWRF also takes Dolly near Corpus Christi but on Thursday morning. The 00Z NOGAPS is targeting Brownsville Wednesday night. The Canadian, UKMET, and European models are progging a landfall in Northern Mexico Wednesday night. The GFDL sides with the other American models and places landfall near Corpus Christi Thursday morning. The American models tend to have a right bias (no, not political) with tropical cyclones, but I feel the non-American models are a tad too far south. I am leaning toward the NOGAPS solution and think landfall will occur just north of Brownsville Wednesday evening.
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4 comments:
Nice update. Looks like Dolly might be a 'major' problem for south TX if it can get its center organized. Should be interesting to see how it looks by this evening.
Thanks man. It's a good thing this isn't August 21 or we could be looking at a Cat 4 or Cat 5
4 storms 3/4ths of the way through July. Looks like a busy season is on the way. Now we will have to see if we can get 5 with 97L.
It looks like 97L will develop in a few days, but I think it moved off of Africa a little too far north to be a threat. We'll see.
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