It sure does look like Dolly is a hurricane now. Although Dolly has not yet been upgraded to a hurricane, I would expect this to happen later this afternoon or this evening at the latest. The beginning stages of an eye wall cycle have been visible at times on
visible satellite imagery this afternoon. The eye has been blocked mostly by the development of a central dense overcast that has become apparent in
infrared imagery. This is fairly common with weaker hurricanes. Additionally, the center of circulation has been observed on Brownsville's radar for several hours now. Convection around the eye wall has increased for most of the day, and it appears as though as Dolly is finally developing a true eye wall.
The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters indicates that Dolly is indeed a hurricane. Taking 90% of the flight level winds measured by the reconnaissance plane (72 knots) would yield surface winds at 75 mph. I also note the pressure has also fallen another 4 mb to 986 mb. I would be very surprised to see Dolly remain a tropical storm on the 4 p.m. advisory. If the pressure continues to drop over 1 mb per hour, expect to see a 5 mph wind speed increase in each advisory.
My thinking still remains unchanged about the track and intensity of Dolly. See the previous post for my thoughts on that.
**Update** The NHC has upgraded Dolly to a hurricane as of the 4 p.m. advisory.
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3 comments:
Will Dolly go through rapid intesification? It looks like she wants to. Should be an interesting next 18 hours.
Question: Do you think tomorrow looks like a good day for chasing? We are debating going to Faith, SD tomorrow to see 'Sue' the T-rex...and then I was thinking about going chasing. Do you see a good spot in the dakotas (north or south) which might be ideal?
I don't know about a rapid intensification cycle, but I can see a modest gain in strength until landfall. If there was better heat content in its path, I would say it would be a certainty. Also, I'd like to see the southern outflow channel more well defined. The upper low is still hindering outflow in that quadrant. Dolly also has to be careful not to entrain the dry air just to her south. That could halt strengthening real quickly.
I'll check out the severe potential for tomorrow after while. I'll get back with you then. Why don't you write a tropical discussion?
I have been busy all day so I haven't really had any time, just catching up with you and Dr. Masters. Anyway, you write better than me! I will look at some things and try to put something together over the next 45 minutes.
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