Rain in the Morning; Storms Possible Overnight

Temperatures are starting out quite muggy this morning thanks to cloud cover, rain, and strong winds. The rain that's fallen overnight and will continue to fall throughout much of the morning is associated with a cold front that is currently located along the Natchez Trace. This front will quickly lose steam and looks to get hung up just north of our area. The current batch of rain should continue through most of the morning hours, but it looks like we may dry out this afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to rise much this morning, but we may be able to top out around 68 this afternoon, despite cloudy skies.

By tonight, an upper air disturbance moving through Texas will develop another round of convection that will form along the stalled frontal boundary. This convection will move our way and expand in coverage as an area of low pressure develops along the front in Western Mississippi. This will combine to greatly increase the chances for rain overnight and some thunderstorms could be thrown in the mix as well given that the NAM and GFS are forecasting limited instability. I don't think the storms will get out of hand, but an isolated severe storm is not out of the realm of possibility. I think the main threats will be hail and damaging winds. The greater threat for severe weather will be just to our south where slightly higher instability will reside. However, if greater instability is realized and storms are rooted in the boundary layer, they could pose a tornado threat given the proximity of the frontal boundary will enhance the low level shear. I'll be watching this closely through the day and will update the blog if changes are needed. The front will push south of the area tomorrow morning, and temperatures will be cooler as you head to work and school. The morning low will be near 53.

Friday's system continues to really worry me, especially given that the -NAO configuration has lead to blocking across much of Eastern Canada and will result in the system digging farther south before it ejects out. The surface low will likely track further south, which places much of Mississippi in line for some of the strongest dynamics. Given the forecast instability and shear parameters, Friday looks to be a red letter day. Now is the time to go ahead and develop a tornado plan with your family or your roommates. I can't stress enough the importance of purchasing a weather radio since it appears that this could be a nighttime outbreak. You should have a weather radio regardless, but it's especially important for Friday night. It's a better investment than a smoke detector and you'll use it much more. Of course, not to say that you shouldn't also have a working smoke detector. I'll continue to post new thoughts in the coming days about Friday.