Warm and Windy; Storms Overnight

Low clouds, moderate winds, and a weak warm front passage overnight all played a role in keeping temperatures in the mid 50s. The big weather maker on the maps this morning is a strong midlatitude cyclone with double barreled low pressure centers in South Dakota and Oklahoma. An associated cold front extends from roughly Sioux City, SD to Kansas City to Tulsa to Abilene, TX. The main dynamics with this storm system will pass well to our north, but our area will be on the southern fringe of the dynamics. As the aforementioned cold front slowly moves eastward, it should trigger a renewed area of strong/severe convection to our west; these storms will remain to our west through the day. Clouds, on the other hand, will be around for much of the day, but I think we get enough sunshine to see temperatures top out near 75 this afternoon. It will also be breezy again today with wind gusts near 30 mph at times.

By this evening, the cold front inches closer to the state and it's possible a few showers could develop after 8 p.m. However, I think the better chance for rain and storms holds off until after 2 a.m. tomorrow morning. With the timing of the storms coming in overnight, this will keep instability values very low and I'm not expecting severe weather for our area. I think the better chance for severe storms will be in Western Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. That being said, don't be surprised if you're awoken by thunder overnight. The low temperature will be a muggy 62 tomorrow morning.

What I am becoming more concerned with is the chance for severe weather at the end of the week. This has been hinted at by various models for the last few days, but the agreement between the models increased considerably yesterday. At this point, it's pointless to talk about the mesoscale environment, but the synoptic environment for this event would seem to point to a near classic setup for a severe weather outbreak in the lower Mississippi Valley. A potent upper level disturbance will combine with a stronger than normal subtropical jet stream, aided by convection in the Central Pacific, to produce a very favorable pattern for large scale ascent and substantial wind shear. A strong low level jet will pump moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and will contribute to a broad and unstable warm sector. These factors will all set the stage for a threat of big time storms on Friday evening. Stay tuned to the blog this week as I'll be following this system very closely.