Quick Tropical Update

-A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms has developed a mid-level circulation in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. Mid-level circulations typically take a day or two before they can translate down to the surface, and it will be a race to the coast as to whether or not this develops. I wouldn't be surprised if this does develop into a depression or tropical storm before moving onshore, but regardless, it will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Gulf Coast.
-Tropical Storm Bill continues to churn in the eastern Atlantic. The current satellite presentation looks pretty healthy as shear has relaxed some from earlier today. Bill will be poised to strengthen modestly once west of 50 deg W, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a major hurricane within the next 5 days. Model guidance has generally shifted to the right today with the exception being the UKMET. I hate to change my forecast so quickly, but I'm now leaning slightly more to the right and think Bill could be a re-curving storm. I still think the East Coast needs to watch Bill, especially from Wilmington to Maine as powerful hurricanes have a way of altering their environment. If Bill can become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, it will be interesting to see what effect it has on the upper level ridge late next week.
-Ana continues to look unimpressive, but if it can fight the dry air to its west, some strengthening may be possible. Model guidance takes Ana through the Caribbean and over Hispaniola. If this occurs, a weak storm like Ana may not be significantly affected by the rugged terrain and may be able to strengthen quickly once over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits. It does look like Ana may wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, but south Florida and the Keys should keep an eye on Ana over the next few days.