Tropical Notes

-T.D. 2 was likely a minimal tropical storm for a very brief period of time Wednesday morning as objective Dvorak numbers were T2.5 when deep convection surrounded its center. Since then, the depression has weakened to a tropical wave as strong wind shear and dry air put a beating on the system. However, the remnant of the depression has looked much more organized today, but strong wind shear and dry air will continue to be the main impediments to short-term development. Regardless of whether it regenerates, model guidance does indicate this wave may approach Florida by Thursday. The environment could become more favorable for development early next week as an upper air ridge builds across the western Atlantic. Residents in Florida should continue to keep a close eye on this system.

-Another tropical wave stretching from Jamaica to the western Bahamas continues to move to the east. This will bring a chance of showers to the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and tomorrow. The wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and could organize a bit more as a strong upper air ridge will create a favorable environment for development. Residents in south Texas should keep a close eye on this system.

-90L continues to look like the most impressive of the bunch, but moderate easterly wind shear is creating a less than ideal environment for development. Still, water temperatures in the lower 80s and a moist ambient environment will likely allow for this wave to develop into a tropical depression and tropical storm this weekend. In fact, I would be somewhat surprised if this is not named by the end of the weekend.

The track forecast for 90L remains complicated by the fact that it does not have a true center of circulation. Until this occurs, forecasting the short and long-term track will be very speculative. That being said, the GFS appears to be the outlier at this point with the tropical wave impacting the Caribbean islands. The foreign models keep the wave north of the islands with the European being the furthest north. I am leaning more in like with the 12Z Canadian run that places the system just north of the Lesser Antilles by Thursday morning. By Friday, models agree on the development of a trough across the eastern part of the country but differ on the strength. The European and Japanese models are the strongest with the trough while the GFS is slightly weaker and further east. The trough in eastern Asia this morning that would teleconnect to next weekend looks to be a compromise between the European and GFS solutions. This trough should pull the system northward by next weekend and may pose a threat to the East Coast. Again, this is highly speculative until a true center is defined and intialized properly by numerical guidance. If you live from Miami to Maine, it would be wise to keep a close eye on this system over the next several days.