Tornado Watch Issued

The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Oktibbeha County until 7 p.m. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has slowly intensified over the last couple of hours as a few breaks in the clouds has boosted temperatures near 80. CAPE values remain weak (~500 J/kg) due to meager lapse rates aloft. However, showers and thunderstorms are trying to develop ahead of the line, but the cap seems to be curtailing their development. This will likely remain the case early this afternoon. The main line of thunderstorms looks to arrive in the area after 2:30 p.m. with damaging winds being the primary threat. Low level wind shear is impressive, but the tornado threat is fairly small given that the most concentrated storms are linear in nature. That being said, a few line breaks are evident with the storms to our west, so a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. The severe weather threat should end after 4 p.m. with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s by this evening.

Storms This Afternoon, Rain Lingers Through the Night

Rain and thunderstorms will return to the area later today as a cold front sweeps through. This front is currently located along the Mississippi River with a weak line of thunderstorms ahead of the front. This front exhibits an anafront appearance with the large majority of the rain behind the front. Skies will be mostly cloudy this morning, but with temperatures running in the lower 70s, it won't take much heating to get warm. I expect the line of storms in western Mississippi to slowly move eastward through the morning hours and intensify as they approach the I-55 corridor by noon. Highs will likely top out near 80 today, and this will add fuel to the line of storms this afternoon. However, CAPE values will remain weak (<500 J/kg) due to less than impressive lapse rates. Very strong wind shear will be able to compensate for the low CAPE environment, and it should support a few bowing segments within the line. Therefore, damaging winds will be the primary threat with the storms later this afternoon. I expect the storms to be knocking on our doorstep between 3 and 4 p.m. As these storms move through, winds could gust over 60 mph. Before the storms arrive, it will also be very windy with gusts up to 35 mph at times.

The front will sweep through the area after 4 p.m., and temperatures will rapidly drop into the upper 50s by 7 p.m. Given the anafrontal nature of this system, light to moderate rain will continue to linger through sunrise tomorrow morning. Winds will remain gusty behind the front with gusts exceeding 20 mph at times. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 50. When all is said and done, I expect most communities will receive between 1-1.5" of rain with this storm system. The good news is that the pattern next week looks much drier as the jet stream lifts to the north.

Morning Rain, Mostly Cloudy This Afternoon

This will be a short blog post today. A northward lifting warm front has generated some heavy rains across the area this morning. The heavy rain should continue through 9 a.m., but there will still be a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. However, I think we'll remain dry for the remainder of the day once this rain exits to the north. A few breaks in the clouds will give way to a few peeks of sunshine later this morning and this afternoon. Highs will top out near 71 this afternoon. Skies will be cloudy tonight with southerly winds pumping in Gulf moisture, and as a result, lows tomorrow morning will be near 66. We should remain dry overnight, but rain chances will return tomorrow with some strong storms possible.

Sun Returns This Afternoon

Persistent stratus clouds overnight kept temperatures in the 50s, but these clouds should hold tough for most of this morning. The front that brought yesterday's rain has exited well to our east and has been replaced by high pressure. As a deep upper air trough digs into the Four Corners today, we'll remain on the western periphery of the downstream ridge. This would normally result in a big warming trend, but the low clouds will offset the amount of low level warming that will occur today. Some drier air should break up the thickness of the clouds this afternoon, but skies will remain partly cloudy. Highs will continue to be rather cool as we'll top out around 67 this afternoon. Skies will temporarily clear this evening, but high clouds will return after midnight in advance of the next storm system. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 56.

***8:30 UPDATE: Low clouds have broken up faster than expected this morning. Skies will be partly cloudy this morning and mostly sunny this afternoon. As a result, highs will likely top out in the lower 70s.

Cool and Wet

Light to occasionally moderate rain has been falling for a few hours around the area and will continue to do so for most of the morning. The wet weather today is being aided by a frontal boundary that is located near the Mississippi River, isentropic ascent, PVA, and weak WAA. The front and dynamics should exit to our east this evening, which means we'll begin to dry out. In the meantime, it appears that we may get a very short break in the rain for an hour or two between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., but a second round of rain will be likely this afternoon. The second round may produce slightly heavier rain, but storm totals should generally be less than 0.75". Cloudy skies and rain will also keep temperatures on the cool side today with highs only topping out near 62. Rain should end from west to east shortly after 7 p.m. as the frontal boundary pushes through the area, but low clouds will linger throughout the night. Weak CAA will allow lows to drop near 52 despite the cloud cover. We'll get a chance to dry out for about 48 hours before a stronger system moves toward the region.

Some Clouds, Light Rain Possible Overnight

The frontal passage on Friday made for a great weekend with pleasant afternoons and cool mornings. That will change quickly this week as a series of storm systems are poised to affect the region. The first system this week will deepen across the Plains states today, and the associated cold front will move slowly eastward. A shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms can be found in advance of the front across mainly Texas and Arkansas. We'll remain dry as this swath of precipitation will stays to our west today, but cloud cover associated with the storm system will allow for partly cloudy skies today. These clouds will keep afternoon highs around 68 this afternoon. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight as better dynamics and isentropic lift impact the area, and as a result a few light showers will be possible after 4 a.m. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 55.

Cloudy, Cooler

The cold front that brought some heavy rain to some communities overnight is now east of Starkville. In its wake is cooler and drier air along with an expansive stratus deck stratus deck. Infrared satellite imagery and forecast soundings indicate that the low clouds will likely hang tough today. The midnight temperature will be the warmest temperature of the day as we should see temperatures drop throughout the day, although, temperatures may level off in the lower 60s late this morning. The true low level cold air advection should commence after noon, which means temperatures will continue to drop once again. Temperatures this afternoon will likely be in the upper 50s to near 60. It will be windy again today with gusts exceeding 15 mph at times, but it won't be nearly as gusty as yesterday. The low clouds should persist through tonight, and some drizzle may occur as upper level energy squeezes out the remaining moisture. Lows tomorrow morning should be near 47.

Clouds should break tomorrow morning with highs topping out in the upper 50s. The game tomorrow night should be played under crystal clear skies with temperatures falling into the upper 40s during the game. Temperatures will rebound nicely on Sunday with abundant sunshine and highs in the mid and upper 60s expected. Our active weather pattern will continue next week as a big storm system will approach the region by the end of the week. Heavy rain and severe storms may be a possibility, and the coldest air of the season will follow for Halloween weekend. In fact, we could even be looking at our first freeze potential by the end of the next weekend.

Wet Weather Returns

Wet weather will return in full force today as a cold front approaches from the west. This front is currently moving through eastern Texas and Oklahoma and is accompanied by some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms. This front will move slowly eastward through the day, and it should be stretched from central Arkansas through western Louisiana by this evening. We may see a few light showers this morning, but the most concentrated rainfall will affect the area tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy today, but a few breaks later this morning should allow highs to top out near 73 this afternoon. A few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but I'm not expecting any severe weather since the atmosphere will be stable. Winds will also be rather gusty this afternoon with speeds exceeding 20 mph at times.

The front will steadily march eastward tonight, and rain will be likely after 6 p.m. with heaviest rain falling late tonight and early Friday morning. The remnants of former Hurricane Rick will add extra moisture to this storm system, so I would be surprised to see many rainfall totals under 1". It's more likely that totals will be generally under 1.5'. Wind gusts may also approach 25 mph late tonight and early Friday morning as the main band of rain moves through the area. The frontal boundary will pass through just before sunrise, so it looks like temperatures will be near 63 tomorrow morning.

Increasing Clouds, Comfortable

We should be able to sneak in one more nice and dry day, but big changes are on the way tomorrow. A shortwave trough will eject into the Southern Plains by this evening, and our upper level flow will turn more southwesterly. As a result, we'll see an increase in cirrus clouds late this morning and especially this afternoon. The thick cirrus canopy this afternoon will hold temperatures around 70. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening, and a persistent southerly flow should increase dew points this evening and overnight. Expect lows around 58 tomorrow morning. It would be a wise idea to take an umbrella with you to work or school tomorrow as rain returns to the area.

Classic Fall Weather

It's a chilly start to the morning as temperatures are running in the lower 40s. Temperatures will rebound nicely thanks to an abundant supply of sunshine and an upper level ridge overhead. A surface high remains to our east, and southerly winds on its western periphery will continue to increase moisture throughout the day. This won't really be noticeable on sensible weather until tonight. Meanwhile, highs this afternoon will top out near 69. Clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Increasing dew points and residual soil moisture will allow the low to be near 47. Our next chance of rain still looks to be on Thursday, and an active weather pattern looks to remain in place through the remainder of the month.

Sunny, Warming Up

A deep upper air trough and cold front produced a chilly weekend, but the trough will push well to our east as a ridge builds over the region later today. High pressure at the surface will also slide to our east by late this afternoon with winds veering to a more southerly component. This combination and abundant sunshine will allow for a big warmup this afternoon with highs topping out near 65. Skies will be clear with light winds overnight, but a southeasterly wind will increase dew points slightly. Lows tomorrow morning should be near 41.

Rainfall Update

September and October are typically the driest months of the year, but an atypical weather pattern has been responsible for the wet weather. In September, cut-off lows and tropical disturbances caused the wet pattern. During the first half of October, an anomalously strong subtropical jet stream provided enhanced uplift and extra moisture to a series of storm systems that impacted the eastern half of the country. Below are some rainfall totals for the last 31 days for select stations in Oktibbeha County.

MS-OK-1 (0.8 mi SW of Starkville): 17.47"
MS-OK-5 (1.7 mi NE of Starkville): 18.97"
MS-OK-6 (5.3 mi S of Starkville): 20.99"
MS-OK-11 (1.4 mi north of Starkville): 15.89"
MS-OK-19 (2.2 mi E of Starkville): 18.81"

The good news is that we should see a few more dry days thanks to an unseasonably strong trough that has influenced the Southeast. The cold front associated with the trough delivered a Canadian air mass that has resulted in chilly mornings and cool afternoons this weekend. By Wednesday, a new trough will eject into the Southern Plains, and moisture should begin increasing across the region. Our next chance of rain should come on Thursday, but this system will be more progressive in nature given the recent flip to a negative SOI and an upward trending NAO. This type of setup would normally limit the period of moisture return and reduce the threat for significant precipitation. However, the remnants of Hurricane Rick could play a big role in increasing the amount of moisture associated with the storm system, so this will be something I'll be paying close attention to over the next few days.

Much Colder, Windy

A strong cold front blasted through the area yesterday afternoon, but temperatures were somewhat slow to advect in as an upper trough did not deepen as much as expected. The upper air trough will deepen considerably over the next 24 hours with very strong cold air advection occurring across the region. As a result, temperatures are not going to rise very much at all today. This will be compounded by a persistent stratus deck that should be in place all day. Judging by upstream observations and soundings yesterday, I expect skies to be cloudy all day. Even some drizzle can't be completely ruled out late this morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be about 20 degrees colder than yesterday with highs only topping out near 54 this afternoon. The wind will make temperatures feel like they are in the upper 40s due to a strong pressure gradient that will maintain a persistent northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph with gusts near 20 mph. Tonight will be chilly, but low clouds and strong winds should keep us from dropping into the 30s. Still, lows tomorrow morning will be near 41.

Saturday looks windy and chilly with low clouds and highs in the lower 50s. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s on Sunday morning but will rebound into the mid 50s by the afternoon. The good news is that the sunshine will make an extended appearance beginning on Sunday. Clear skies on Sunday night should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s Monday morning.

Rain Through Mid-Afternoon, Turning Colder

Big changes are on the way in the next 24 hours as an upper air trough will begin to deepen across the Midwest. As it does so, it will send a very chilly air mass our way and help kick a pesky frontal boundary out of the region. The frontal boundary is currently located from northern Alabama through northeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms can be found in advance of the front with the strongest convection occurring over southern Arkansas. The front will be on the march southward throughout the day, and as a result, our rain chances will begin to increase after 9 a.m. A few thunderstorms could be thrown in the mix, but I'm not expecting any severe weather for our area. The front should pass through the county after noon, but a few lingering showers will still be possible this afternoon behind the front. Highs should be able to top out near 74 this afternoon. The frontal effects will really be felt by this evening as the upper trough amplifies and ushers the cold air into the area. It will be windy this evening with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Temperatures will begin to drop quickly after 7 p.m. with temperatures in the lower 50s by midnight and near 48 tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be the coldest day since last spring as a persistent stratus deck and strong cold air advection will dominate the weather.

Cloudy but Drier

All of the rain has exited to our south and east this morning, and we should go a full 24 hours without seeing rain! The frontal system and upper level disturbance associated with the rain last night will completely clear the area by later this morning. As it does so, winds will veer to the northwest and some slightly drier air will filter into the area. Cloud cover will be stubborn to break up much today, but there is a very small chance we could see one or two breaks in the clouds later this afternoon. Highs will top out near 75 this afternoon. Fog will likely develop tonight, so use caution if you're headed to work or school early tomorrow morning. Lows will drop to 63 tomorrow morning. This weekend still looks a little chilly as a strong upper air trough digs into the Southeast. Saturday will be the coldest day as strong cold air advection dominates and a persistent stratus deck will be tough to break up. Highs may only reach the mid 50s, and lows could dip into the upper 30s. A quick warming trend will begin by early next week as an upper ridge builds over the region.

LDCT

Our storm chase group, Long Distance Storm Chase Team (LDCT), turned 8 years old yesterday. My buddy Greg Nordstrom wrote an excellent summary on the roots of our chase group.

http://longdistancechaseteam.blogspot.com/2009/10/8-years-of-ldct.html

Warmer, Rain and Storms This Evening & Overnight

All is quiet this morning on the radar, but rain will be arriving again quickly later today. In response to multiple upper level disturbances, a warm front currently draped across the Gulf coast will retreat northward today. As it does so, showers and thunderstorms will erupt to our west later this morning and early afternoon. The good news is that I think we'll stay dry for much of the day. A few breaks in the clouds today should allow temperatures to top out near 75 this afternoon. The forecast for this evening and overnight is very difficult. Computer model guidance insists that two waves of rain will develop across Arkansas and western Tennessee and in Louisiana. However, there is not a consensus agreement as to where the heaviest precipitation will be located. The large majority of models and ensemble guidance suggest that the heaviest rain will form in Arkansas and track eastward across northern Mississippi tonight and early Wednesday morning. Our rain chances will really ramp up after 5 p.m., but the bulk of the rain should exit to our east tomorrow morning after 3 a.m. I think we'll likely dodge the bullseye of heaviest precipitation, but we still stand to see up to an inch of rain through sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 66.

Wet This Morning, Scattered Showers This Afternoon

Very heavy rainfall fell overnight with many areas picking up between 1 and 2 inches. Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to be wet again today. The ongoing rain is being caused by isentropic ascent associated with the cold front that moved to our south over the weekend. This front is currently located along the Gulf coast, but it will lift northward to near I-20 by this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak upper level disturbances will help enhance the lift, and this will lead to additional rounds of rain, especially this morning. As the warm front lifts northward, it should shift the heaviest precipitation northward, which means that it likely won't rain all day, but there will continue to be a chance of scattered showers this afternoon. Skies will be cloudy today, and temperatures won't crack 70 degrees. Instead, highs should only top out near 68 this afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy overnight, and there is a small chance for a few showers. A low temperature of 64 will likely occur near midnight, but the temperature will rise slightly afterward with temperatures tomorrow morning near 66. There is good model agreement that we'll turn drier and colder this weekend as a trough digs into the Eastern U.S. We could see highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s!

Scattered Afternoon Storms; Rain Overnight

The muggy start this morning is a sign of things to come later today. That's right, rain will returning to the forecast again later today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The front currently stretches from northwest Ohio to eastern Texas, and very heavy rainfall can be found directly ahead of the front. By this afternoon, the front should be pushing across eastern Arkansas, and this is when our rain chances will really increase. Before it rains, skies will be mostly cloudy this morning and early afternoon, but it will be warm again with highs topping out near 86. The temperature will actually feel like it's in the 90s again when you factor in the high dew points. It will also be another windy day with wind gusts approaching 25 mph at times this afternoon.

The heat and moisture should help boost instability, and a large magnitude of wind shear will allow for strong to isolated severe storms late this afternoon and early evening. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later this morning and this afternoon. Damaging winds and small hail will be the primary concerns given the unidirectional nature of forecast soundings and hodographs. The frontal boundary should push through the area after 6 p.m., but a band of moderate to heavy rain will still be found behind the front. This main band of rain will likely hold off until after 8 p.m., but it appears as though it will weaken as it moves east. The result of this is that the front will have undercut the rain, the main dynamics shoot to the north, and the environment becomes stable after the frontal passage. Still, some moderate rain may occur late tonight through sunrise Saturday. Once the front exits east, much cooler and drier weather will filter into the area. In fact, lows tomorrow morning will be near 56.

If you're headed to the homecoming game tomorrow, it would be a good idea to prepare for wet weather. Some lingering showers may stick around for tailgating and the first half of the game. I'm not expecting any heavy rain like a couple of weeks ago, but it will feel raw with light rain and temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Summerlike Weather Returns

Low clouds came back in a hurry overnight and kept temperatures in the low to mid 60s. It looks like we'll deal with low clouds for a couple of hours this morning, but we should have partly cloudy skies for much of the day. A strong upper air storm system in the Southwestern U.S. will help generate a surface low pressure in west Texas later today. As it develops, the weak frontal boundary that passed through yesterday will return northward as a warm front. This will allow for summerlike conditions to be prevalent across the area today. In fact, highs will likely be the warmest we have seen in over a month with readings near 88. Combined with dew points in the 70s, it will feel like temperatures are in the lower 90s. Additionally, a tightening pressure gradient and stronger boundary layer winds will allow for a rather windy afternoon; wind gusts could approach 20 mph at times. No lifting mechanisms will be in place this afternoon, but an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible during peak heating. Low clouds will return again overnight and should make for a muggy evening with temperatures dropping to near 72 tomorrow morning.

Showers This Morning, Drier This Afternoon

It was a little stormy earlier this morning, and a few scattered showers remain around the area. Our wet weather pattern continues thanks to a waffling surface boundary that is now located just south of the Highway 82 corridor. The front should slowly push southward today, but it is parallel to the upper air flow and doesn't have much momentum behind it. Behind the front, some drier air will work its way into our area throughout the day. Although we'll have to dodge a few showers this morning, the afternoon should be relatively dry with the exception of one or two very isolated showers. The temperature forecast is tricky today as temperatures are currently running in the lower 60s. Skies will be cloudy for much of the day, but a few breaks this afternoon may allow temperatures to top out around 70. If no breaks occur, we may stay in the 60s all day. Despite some drier air filtering into the area, skies will be mostly cloudy overnight and should keep lows near 61.

Clearing This Morning, Pleasant

The heaviest of the rain moved through early this morning, but it continues to be a wet morning as a few lingering showers are around the area. It's mainly light rain and drizzle, but it should move to our east by 9:30 this morning. The cold front that generated the rain is just to our west and should move through the area within the next couple of hours. We'll continue to see a few clouds behind the front until after 10 a.m., but abundant sunshine should dominate late this morning and early afternoon. It will actually be a beautiful day this afternoon with clear skies, low humidity, and highs near 74 this afternoon. Skies will be clear tonight with light winds and dry air, but the amount of soil moisture will continue to prevent lows from dropping into the mid 40s. It will still be chilly overnight with lows near 48.

Warmer, Storms Overnight

The weather will be rapidly changing today as a strong upper level disturbance moves through the central part of the country. Downstream ridging will dominate our weather this afternoon, which will mean warming temperatures aloft and at the surface. Additionally, as a surface high pressure located over the Ohio Valley moves east, southerly winds will begin to pump Gulf moisture into the region. A few high clouds will move through the area, and these will prevent us from reaching our maximum high potential. Still, highs should top out near 79 this afternoon.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front from northeast Texas to Illinois. This line will march eastward overnight, but it will weaken as it encounters a slightly less unstable air mass to the east. Clouds will also increase and thicken this evening and overnight. It appears that we'll stay dry until after 2 a.m. when the line will begin to approach the area. Strong storms will be possible, but very limited instability will keep the storms below severe limits. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will all be possible after 2 a.m. Lows will be near 64 tomorrow morning.