Cloudy, Slightly Warmer; Rain Possible Overnight

The storm system that brought some light rain to the area yesterday and last night is exiting to the east. However, we'll quickly turn our attention back to the west where a strengthening shortwave trough is causing rain and snow across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. In the meantime, since we are between two weather systems, we should remain on the dry side for the daylight hours. The morning sounding from Birmingham indicates that the air is very dry above 750 mb, but an abundance of moisture is trapped below. Although we'll continue to dry out the mid and lower levels as the day progresses, moisture will remain trapped below about 900 mb. As a result, skies will likely stay cloudy today. However, southerly winds will allow temperatures to top out around 54 this afternoon.

As the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the west, moisture will begin to increase through the column this evening and overnight. Heavier rains in the northern Gulf will tend to cut off the shield of rain to its north. As a result, a few light showers will be possible after midnight, but rainfall amounts will be very light (<0.05"). The precipitation should remain all liquid as forecasting soundings show that it will be a little too warm in the lowest 2,000' for any snow. As winds turn northerly this evening, temperatures will begin to drop quickly. Lows on the first day of the new year should be near 37. Wind gusts in the upper teens will make the temperature to feel even colder.

Rain Arrives This Afternoon

Extensive cloud cover associated with our next weather maker kept temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than the previous two nights. The aforementioned weather maker is a shortwave trough that will initiate the development of a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico later today. This low will slide eastward along the northern Gulf coast, and it will spread a shield of rain across the area this afternoon and evening. Although a few peeks of sunshine have been visible this morning, expect skies to become completely cloudy within the next couple of hours. Before the rain arrives, highs should be able to top out around 50. Winds will also be breezy at times today with gusts in the upper teens. After the onset of the rain this afternoon, temperatures will likely drop a few degrees. However, winds are forecast to turn to the south overnight, and temperatures may actually rise after midnight. In fact, lows tomorrow morning will be near 47. Although the main axis of rain will shift to our east by midnight, some sprinkles or drizzle will be possible overnight.

Sunny, Breezy, & Cool

It's very chilly this morning with temperatures running in the lower 30s, but gusty northwest winds are making the temperature feel much colder. A strong surface high to our west will dominate our weather over the next 24-48 hours. A deepening upper air trough over the northeast U.S. will provide a reinforcing shot of Canadian air today. Despite full sunshine today, highs will only manage to top out near 45. Additionally, wind gusts in the upper teens will cause temperatures to feel 5-10 degrees colder at times today. By this evening, winds will begin to subside, and with clear skies, temperatures should quickly drop. The only negative factor for ideal radiational cooling will be the development of a few low clouds after 2 a.m. Still, lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

Wet & Windy

As advertised, a very strong cold front will approach the region today and create a very wet and windy day. The cold front currently stretches from Texarkana, AR southward to the Sabine River Valley in Texas. Very heavy showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are located ahead of the front across Arkansas and Louisiana. As the day progresses, this shield of precipitation will slowly move eastward. Rain chances for our area will begin to ramp up after noon, but the heaviest rain should hold off until this evening. We should see some broken cloudiness this morning, but cloud cover will only increase as we head into the afternoon hours. Highs should top out around 62 this afternoon. As a result of a tight pressure gradient, very strong southeasterly winds could gust as high as 40 mph late this afternoon and evening! Be very careful if you're driving a high profile vehicle, particularly along I-20/59 and I-65 between Montgomery and Mobile.

The heaviest rain and strongest thunderstorm activity should occur after 6 p.m. The main brunt of the rain should end by 11 p.m., but additional showers will be possible overnight as the upper level disturbance pivots across the region. In addition to strong winds, thunderstorms could be another potential hazard tonight. Although wind shear will be extremely favorable for severe weather, the very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE ~200 J/kg) will not be able to compensate for the shear. As a result, storms should be sheared apart. However, given the strength of the shear, a dynamically forced line of storms could be on the strong side. I think the severe activity will remain to our south and west. The cold front should pass through the area after midnight with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s and 40s. The low tomorrow morning should be near 44.

Christmas Day is shaping up to be cloudy, drizzly, windy, and very cold. The warmest temperature of the day will be at midnight, but the afternoon high tomorrow will be in the lower 40s. Gusty west winds will make the temperature feel much colder all day. Additionally, some lingering moisture associated with the upper level disturbance will squeeze out some drizzle in the morning hours. Although some outlets are suggesting a chance of snow flurries tomorrow, I don't see this since there will be very meager moisture in the snow growth region. I would like to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas!

Mostly Cloudy, Slight Chance of Showers

A big weather maker will be taking shape across the Plains states today, and this will slowly work its way eastward over the next 24-36 hours. A very slight chance of rain will be possible this afternoon, but most places should remain dry across west Alabama. Highs will top out around 60 despite the extensive cloud cover in place. A slight chance of rain will be possible overnight, but the most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms will remain across Mississippi through sunrise tomorrow morning. The low should be near 52 tomorrow morning. Christmas Eve looks very wet, but I don't expect much in the way of severe weather at this point.

High Afternoon Clouds, Mild

It's another cool morning with sub-freezing temperatures around the county, but we'll see a nice rebound in temperatures this afternoon. A surface high to our east will allow for southerly winds today, and in the upper levels, ahead of a digging trough in the Four Corners region, a shortwave ridge will build over the Southeast. Temperatures aloft will be slightly warmer this afternoon than yesterday, but this should still allow highs to jump into the 60s today. The only fly in the ointment preventing maximum heating will be an increase in cirrus clouds as the afternoon progresses. I still expect the high to top out around 61 this afternoon. By this evening and overnight, cloud cover should continue to increase and thicken as a series of subtle upper level disturbances approach the region. Combined with warm air advection, this should allow for the development of some showers across the Arklamiss overnight. However, I expect any rain to remain to our west through sunrise. Expect the overnight low to be much warmer at around 44.

Sunny, Warming Trend Begins

A very strong storm system moving through the Gulf of Mexico brought heavy rains to the state on Friday, followed by much colder weather on Saturday. It was still cool yesterday, but at least the sun made a return appearance. The sun should continue in full force today as our surface weather pattern is dominated by a high pressure in the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, generally flat westerly flow will be the rule as a strong storm system begins to dig into the western states. As the flow has turned more westerly aloft, a weak warm air advection regime has begun, which will allow highs to top out around 56 this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds in place tonight, we should see another chilly evening. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 31.

The big news in the weather world will be the big pre-Christmas storm that will affect much of the eastern half of the nation. With the primary surface low moving across Missouri, severe weather will be more of a threat than winter weather. However, like the overwhelming majority of cool season events, the threat for severe weather is contingent upon needed buoyancy for our area. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that this will be a very dynamic storm system with very favorable wind shear profiles. On the other hand, a very narrow ribbon of weak buoyancy (MLCAPE <500 J/kg) is forecast to be present into southwest Alabama. Regardless of the severity of the convection, late Wednesday through Thursday figures to be a wet period across the state. After the passage of the storm system, much colder air will filter into the state, and indeed, Christmas Day and Saturday will feature highs in the 40s.

Cloudy & Cool

Most places in the county received a good soaking overnight with rainfall totals between 0.50-1.00". Light rain continues to fall in the Starkville area, which is being aided by mid-level convergence. The rain should end from west to east by 10 a.m. Otherwise, skies will remain cloudy for the remainder of the morning and early afternoon in the wake of a storm system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. By this afternoon, there is an outside chance that we might see a peak or two of sun, but skies will still remain mostly cloudy. Highs this afternoon will top out around 50. An upper level storm system will approach the area late overnight, but it should only reinforce the cloud cover. Moisture will be very anemic as this system passes through, so it doesn't seem likely that any precipitation will occur. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be near 35.

We'll get a chance to dry out this weekend, but clouds will likely stick around for much of Saturday in association with the upper level disturbance. This disturbance will also usher in a fresh supply of Canadian air. In fact, highs on Saturday will likely be in the low to mid 40s. It feel much colder than that as northwest winds could gust as high as 25 mph. On Sunday, we should finally see a good supply of sunshine, but temperatures will remain on the chilly side with highs in the in the mid 40s. Our next chance of rain appears to be the middle of next week as a big pre-Christmas storm system will affect much of the eastern half of the country. Early speculation was that this system may produce some winter weather, but at this time, severe weather is more of a concern to me. If any winter weather were to occur with the storm system, it would occur on the backside and would be light in nature.

Today marks the last blog post of work day weather forecasts for MSU, Starkville, and Oktibbeha County. Although I will continue to be a MSU employee through the spring semester, I have moved to Tuscaloosa in order to focus on pursuing a dream career with the National Weather Service. I am truly indebted to the Department of Geosciences at MSU because it was responsible for educating and employing me for the last 9 1/2 years. I may be biased, but I feel like our department as a whole has the best teachers on campus. Anyone interested in broadcast or operational meteorology should give MSU some serious consideration. Our Broadcast Meteorology Program IS the best in the country, and our Operational Meteorology Program has improved by leaps and bounds in the last 5 years. It's no coincidence that, in that time frame, several MSU graduates have obtained employment in the NWS and many more seem poised to land there in the future. Needless to say, I fully recommend MSU for any interested in meteorology!

Continued Cool

Last night was a classic example of the difficulties with forecasting when an active subtropical jet is in place. Despite a cold front moving through the area yesterday, a newly developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico produced a considerable amount of high clouds. As a result, temperatures are just above freezing to start the morning. Satellite imagery suggests the high clouds will persist for much of the day, but some filtered sunshine will occur at times. At the surface, high pressure in Indiana and low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico will combine to produce a cool northeasterly breeze. Highs this afternoon will top out around 47. High clouds will remain in place tonight and will probably only thicken towards sunrise. Lows tomorrow morning should be near 32.

Cloudy, Breezy, & Much Cooler

A large complex of showers and thunderstorms across southern Mississippi yesterday blocked the inflow to the north ahead of the cold front, and as a result, most communities around the county remained dry. Another band of moderate to heavy rain is located across central and southern Mississippi in association with a cold front. Behind the front, temperatures have dropped into the lower 50s this morning across the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy today, and with strong cold air advection occurring in the wake of the cold front, current temperatures will probably be the warmest we see today. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s late this morning before slowly dropping into the mid 40s by late this afternoon. It will be rather breezy today with wind gusts exceeding 20 mph at times. By this evening, skies should become mostly clear, but the boundary layer will likely not decouple overnight. As a result, temperatures should not plummet, but it will still be a chilly night. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 31.

Foggy Through Noon, P.M. Showers

The weekend was a bit dreary, but we managed to escape the heavier rain that fell across the southern part of the state. Temperatures warmed slightly yesterday and that trend will continue today. A weakening polar vortex can be attributed to the warming as it has allowed the jet stream to lift to our north. As a result, an area of low pressure located across western Kansas will move northeastward today and should be located near Detroit this evening. Trailing the area of low pressure will be a cold front that will stretch through northeast Texas. At the same time, isentropic ascent will commence across the region. These two factors argue for decent lift across the area, and this should result in a chance for rain, particularly tonight. However, a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will provide another source for lift, and this should concentrate the heaviest rains in its vicinity across southern Mississippi.

In the meantime, expect the fog and mist to persist for much of the morning hours. By this afternoon, the fog should slowly dissipate, but low clouds will remain in place as a considerable amount of moisture will be trapped below an inversion. Highs should manage to top out around 63 this afternoon. Rain chances will increase after 6 p.m. as the aforementioned cold front approaches northwest Mississippi. The most rain should fall before midnight, but a few showers will remain possible through 3 a.m. The front should pass through the area just after midnight, which should quickly drop temperatures into the 50s. The low tomorrow morning will be near 48.

Mostly Cloudy, Chilly; Slight Chance of Sleet Before Sunrise

Temperatures have fluctuated between the upper 20s and 30 for much of the night as an extensive cirrus shield blanketed the area. These clouds will stick around for much of the day as a tropically connected branch of the subtropical jet remains entrenched across the region. The confluence of the subtropical jet and the polar jet will take place to our north, which will place the Deep South in the right entrance region of the jets. The vertical motion associated with this quadrant will help initiate a surface low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The low should contribute to a gradual increase in moisture over the course of the day. However, rain chances will be kept at bay as a strong surface high remains in control of our weather. Since skies will be mostly cloudy today, highs will remain on the chilly side as we should only top out near 43.

By this evening, cloud cover will thicken and lower as moisture increases due to the surface low in the Gulf and as isentropic processes commence. I'm always leery of model guidance that holds off the onset of the precipitation when moderate large scale ascent is occurring. If the models are indeed correct, we should remain dry through sunrise tomorrow morning. However, with the strong vertical lift, I feel that a slight chance of precipitation is warranted just before sunrise. If precipitation does indeed occur before sunrise, the amount of dry air in the lowest 8,000 feet would support evaporative cooling. The evaporative cooling would produce a thermal profile supportive of a period of sleet. I don't expect any travel problems to occur as the precipitation will be very light. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 33.

Mostly Sunny, Cold

It's a very cold start to the morning as temperatures are sitting in the upper 20s. That indicates how impressive this modified arctic air mass is, especially given the fact that winds were never close to being calm and most of the area received 2-4" of rain in the last couple of days. The weather maps show that the upper air pattern over the region is dominated mostly by quasi-zonal flow, with a slight hint of west southwesterly flow. A very strong branch of the subtropical jet stream has merged with the polar jet across the Ohio Valley. A stream of high cirrus clouds is evident on infrared imagery extending from the Pacific through Texas and along the Gulf Coastal states. It's possible that a few of these clouds may pass through the area at times today. Otherwise, skies should be mostly sunny as high pressure builds into the region. With the modified arctic air mass in place, I think temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s today. In fact, I think highs will only top out near 41 this afternoon. It will not be as breezy today as it was yesterday, but winds could gust as high as 15 mph, particularly this morning. The forecast for tonight is somewhat tricky as cirrus clouds associated with the STJ will begin to stream into the area. This should put a cap on the radiational cooling to a degree, but it's still hard to underestimate the strength of this air mass. I'll go with a compromise and forecast a low of 27 tomorrow morning.

Snow in the Picture?

An interesting weather scenario will unfold late Friday night and Saturday morning. Upper level energy ejecting out of Texas tomorrow evening will result in the development of a surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico. As this low strengthens and moves eastward Friday night and Saturday morning, it will spread moisture northward across the Deep South. Meanwhile, as a deep upper air trough moves over the region, it will supply a reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian air. The combination of the upper level dynamics and the surface low will generate enough lift for a band of light to moderate precipitation to develop across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. Lighter amounts of precipitation will fall across central Mississippi and Alabama.

The coupling of the cold air and moisture will be enough to cause some winter weather concerns, especially Saturday morning. Although some light snow will likely occur between midnight and 8 a.m. on Saturday, I don't feel like there will be any travel concerns for Oktibbeha County. This is primarily due to the deeper moisture remaining to our south and very warm soil temperatures. In fact, soil temperatures on the North Farm at MSU are 51 F. It would take a heavy burst of snow to cause much in the way of accumulations, and the lift needed to generate a heavy burst will remain well to our south. If you're headed to southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, or southern Alabama, there could be some accumulations (up to 2") of snow.

Drizzle/Light Rain Possible, Remaining Cool

An area of low pressure is currently located near Greenwood, MS, with a cold front stretching to the southeast of the surface low. This storm system will gradually move to the east throughout the day, and it looks like the front will push through our area around noon. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms are ongoing across Alabama and Florida, but a band of light to moderate showers that is associated with the upper level energy is occurring across Arkansas and western Mississippi. As the upper level energy pivots eastward, a few patches of light rain and drizzle will be possible through 4 p.m. Clouds will hang tough today, and highs will only manage to top out near 52. Winds will become breezy late this afternoon and this evening as the storm to our east deepens. Wind gusts could possibly exceed 25 mph at times. In the wake of the surface and upper level storm system, low level moisture will remain trapped below a strong inversion. As a result, skies will remain cloudy overnight, which will keep lows near 40 tomorrow morning.