Wet, Cooler

Rain will return to the area today as a storm system currently along the Upper Texas Coast moves eastward along the Gulf Coast states. After several days of following this system and the synoptic scale pattern, the surface low pressure should track from near Houston to Andalusia, AL over the next 24 hours. A large band of precipitation extends from the northwest Gulf of Mexico to Missouri with wintry precipitation generally falling along and north of I-40. Some showers are moving into West Alabama, and we could see some light rain to moderate rain at times this morning. The heaviest rain should arrive after 6 p.m. and last through midnight. Highs will only top out around 46 this afternoon due to the presence of clouds and rain. However, once the low pressure wave approaches the southwest corner of the state, temperatures should actually rise to around 48 just after midnight. Light rain will continue through the overnight hours with temperatures dropping to 45 tomorrow morning. I should also mention that winds will be breezy at times this afternoon and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens.

The tough part of the forecast hinges on the chance for any wintry precipitation as the system exits. I still think that temperatures will drop quickly once the arctic air moves into the area early tomorrow afternoon. Some lingering precipitation associated with the upper level energy should move through the area by Saturday night. I think temperature profiles will support a threat for very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle between 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. Precipitation amounts will be so light that major travel problems should not be a concern. However, some patchy ice will be possible on area bridges, so use caution if you'll be out tomorrow evening. The warmest part of the day tomorrow will be the early morning hours with temperatures dropping throughout the day. We'll dry out on Sunday, and the sun should return in the afternoon. I still think temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be too warm by the models, especially with northwest winds crossing a snow and ice pack to our north. Look for highs to be around 40 on Sunday. The large majority of next week looks rather dry with temperatures near normal, but we should return to an active weather pattern late next week.

MOS Watching in Memphis

Yesterday, I picked three cities in the northern and central Plains to follow for lows Thursday morning, highs Thursday afternoon, and lows Friday morning. I want to get a handle on how MOS and raw guidance handle the arctic air mass. So far, model guidance has not busted as bad as I thought it would. Granted, today's high in Kansas City was definitely lower than any of the guidance suggested. Areas further south and east across Missouri and northern Arkansas were consistently 3-5 degrees cooler today than what MOS products were forecasting yesterday.

The further south you go, MOS products will likely have similar or even worse errors because this arctic air mass is a statistical anomaly. Although this air mass is much colder than normal for cities like Omaha and Des Moines, the MOS products should have plenty of these cold anomalies incorporated into its records. In other words, it's much more common for these cities to have cold outbreaks during the middle of winter. On the other hand, cold outbreaks are less common across the South, and there aren't as many of these anomalies built into the MOS records. As a result, look for MOS products to struggle with this arctic air mass across the Mid South. I'll add Memphis to the end of this list, and we'll see how well the models perform tomorrow.

Omaha, NE
12Z NAM MOS -- 2/13/3
12Z GFS MOS -- 3/14/4
18Z NAM RAW -- 3/14/5
18Z GFS RAW -- 4/14/5
Thursday morning low: 5
Thursday afternoon high: 14

Des Moines, IA
12Z NAM MOS -- 3/11/0
12Z GFS MOS -- 2/10/-1
18Z NAM RAW -- -2/11/8
18Z GFS RAW -- 0/9/-5
Thursday morning low: 3
Thursday afternoon high: 12

Kansas City, MO
12Z NAM MOS -- 13/25/8
12Z GFS MOS -- 13/28/14
18Z NAM RAW -- 16/26/16
18Z GFS RAW -- 17/24/16
Thursday morning low: 15
Thursday afternoon high: 23

Memphis, TN (forecast for Friday afternoon high)
12Z NAM MOS -- 42
12Z GFS MOS -- 36
12Z NAM RAW -- 34
12Z GFS RAW -- 30
I think the raw guidance is on the right track for Memphis, but the MOS products should bust badly on the high. It will be interesting to watch what happens.

Partially Sunny, Mild

Our next weather maker is spinning over the Four Corners this morning with a healthy shield of precipitation affecting Texas and Oklahoma. The good news is that any rain should stay well to our west and north for the next 24 hours. A few high clouds associated with this storm system have blanketed the area this morning, and it appears that we'll be stuck with these throughout the day. However, the cirrus clouds should be thin enough to allow for filtered sunshine. Highs should manage to top out around 61 this afternoon. Enjoy today because this will likely be the warmest weather we see for at least a week. Clouds will thicken and lower through the evening and overnight hours. However, cool northeasterly winds will still allow temperatures to drop near 39 tomorrow morning.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm system poised to affect the area on Friday and Saturday. What is not in question is that 98% of the precipitation that falls will be liquid, but the remaining 2% of the precipitation could end as light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. I still think the models will be a little too warm with the arctic air mass moving in, so I think there will be a brief window of opportunity for some very light freezing rain/drizzle to occur on Saturday morning. Although the amounts will be light, there may be some slick spots on area roadways. I'll have a more extensive discussion on these threats tomorrow morning.

MOS Watching

I've picked three cities in the northern Plains to follow for lows Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon highs, and Friday morning lows. I want to get a handle on how MOS and raw guidance handle the arctic air mass. I'm willing to bet that MOS guidance will be too warm with the temperatures as it rarely performs well with these arctic air masses.

Omaha, NE
12Z NAM MOS -- 2/13/3
12Z GFS MOS -- 3/14/4
18Z NAM RAW -- 3/14/5
18Z GFS RAW -- 4/14/5

Des Moines, IA
12Z NAM MOS -- 3/11/0
12Z GFS MOS -- 2/10/-1
18Z NAM RAW -- -2/11/8
18Z GFS RAW -- 0/9/-5

Kansas City, MO
12Z NAM MOS -- 13/25/8
12Z GFS MOS -- 13/28/14
18Z NAM RAW -- 16/26/16
18Z GFS RAW -- 17/24/16

Sunny & Breezy

High pressure at the surface will dominate our weather today. We'll see an abundance of sunshine, but temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday. Highs should top out around 54 this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient will remain in place today and result in another windy day with some gusts up to 30 mph. The pressure gradient will relax substantially overnight as high pressure will be centered over the area. With very light winds, dry air, and clear skies in place, temperatures should easily be able to drop below freezing tonight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 28.

Temperatures will temporarily warm up Wednesday and Thursday before our next storm system arrives on Friday. We'll have to watch this system closely for the threat for winter weather as the weather pattern favors a suppressed storm track. Combined with a surge of modified arctic air, the potential is in place for a significant winter storm across the South. I think our area will remain all rain except for a brief changeover to freezing rain at the end of the event. However, I think residents in North Alabama should prepare for some major headaches. Much colder air will filter into the state for the weekend, and highs will stay in the 30s Saturday and may struggle to break 40 on Sunday as strong northwest winds will blow over a snow and ice pack.

Cooler and Breezy

The sun has finally made a return appearance this morning now that most folks have to return to work or school. The surface storm system that brought us the windy and stormy conditions yesterday is exiting to the east, but its upper level counterpart is still located to our north. This should not have a noticeable impact on sensible weather today, but the cooler air mass that filtered into the state in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage will allow for more seasonable temperatures this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies should allow for highs to top out around 55 today. It will also be windy as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, and winds could gust as high as 30 mph at times this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level disturbance will move through the area tonight, and it will provide a reinforcing supply of cooler air. A few low clouds may accompany the disturbance, but the majority of the night will feature mostly clear skies. Also, winds will remain up through the night, which should inhibit ideal radiational cooling conditions. Still, it will be chilly tomorrow morning with lows near 33.

Mostly Cloudy, Slightly Cooler

Skies remained clear for most of the night, but a stratus deck has moved into the area from the north. It appears that these low clouds will hang out for most of the day in some capacity. We could see some peeks of sun this afternoon, but the clouds will certainly dominate. The front that moved through yesterday will provide a temporary cool down from the last couple of days. Highs should top out around 60 this afternoon. Our weather pattern will quickly change again tonight as our next storm system takes shape over the western High Plains. Leeside cyclogenesis will allow southeasterly winds to return overnight, and a few cirrus clouds in advance of the storm system will approach the area before midnight. This should prevent ideal radiational cooling, but temperatures tomorrow morning will be near 45.

Our recent thaw will come to an end by the time the weekend is over. The big storm system out West will allow for two more warm days with highs in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. A chance of rain and possibly some thunderstorms will arrive late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. I was initially concerned about the chance for severe weather, but the occlusion of and the timing of this system should prevent those concerns. Strong dynamics but weak thermodynamics should allow for a forced line of storms to develop. These storms may produce some strong winds early Sunday morning. A cold front should pass through Sunday afternoon, and a much cooler and drier air mass will engulf the state. Cooler than normal temperatures will dominate early in the week followed by near normal temperatures late next week. The pattern for the next couple of weeks doesn't suggest any prolonged periods of anomalously warm weather.

Mostly Sunny & Warm, Isolated Storms Possible

We managed to avoid any severe weather, but a good soaking rain fell yesterday and overnight across the county with most areas receiving between 1 and 1.5". The rain and storms are quickly exiting the exit as a strong dry slot is punching into the state. This dry slot is allowing for a good supply of sunshine this morning, but a few low clouds will move through later this morning and early afternoon. The cold front associated with this storm system is still located along the Mississippi River and won't pass through the county until after 7 p.m. As a result, temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs topping out around 73 this afternoon. As the front approaches this afternoon, it could spark off some isolated storms as SBCAPE values climb to almost 1,500 J/kg. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat with any storms that form. It will also be breezy with winds gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon. As the front swings through, slightly cooler and drier air will filter into the state. However, a chance of showers will remain possible through midnight as the upper level energy moves through. Skies will likely become cloudy tonight but clearing near sunrise. Lows will be near 46 tomorrow morning.

Some Clouds, Mild

Mostly clear skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop well into the 30s. Clouds have been on the increase this morning in advance of a subtle upper level disturbance and within a weak warm air advection regime. A lead shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners has initiated the development of a lee side cyclone across eastern Colorado. As the day progresses, this low will consolidate its energy across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and slowly move northeastward. Southerly winds in advance of the low and on the western periphery of a surface high to our east will result in a southerly breeze today. This should allow highs to top out around 63 this afternoon despite partly cloudy skies. Thickening clouds and a persistent southerly breeze will keep temperatures unseasonably mild tonight with a low near 51. With some lift present overnight and increasing moisture, there is a very small chance of rain before sunrise, but I think we'll stay dry.

The big weather maker this weekend still appears to have some potential to produce severe weather across the region. As is the case with the large majority of cool season severe weather events, this event will have plenty of dynamics to work with, but the thermodynamics will be lacking. Still, it appears that enough instability will be present to warrant a threat of severe weather on Sunday.

Mild Week Ahead

The rains over the weekend have lead to widespread dense fog around the county this morning. Satellite imagery and forecast soundings suggest the fog should begin to mix out by 10 a.m. After the fog dissipates, a beautiful day is in store with abundant sunshine. After a cool day yesterday, temperatures will be over 10 degrees warmer this afternoon with highs topping out around 62. Skies will be clear this evening but will begin to increase late tonight in advance of an upper level disturbance. This upper level disturbance is evident on water vapor imagery and is currently impacting the southern Plains. All available guidance keeps this disturbance well to our north, but a few clouds will move across the area as its southern fringe clips us. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 41.

We'll be in a very progressive pattern this week meaning that we'll see rain every 2-3 days. However, temperatures will be above normal, and it's not out of the question that we could jump into the 70s at some point by the end of next weekend! Thursday or Sunday would be the best bet for that to happen. When it gets warm in January, we usually have to start worrying about severe weather, and that may very well be the case late this weekend as a lot of energy ejects of out the West. It's a little early to talk about specifics, but pattern recognition certainly supports the threat for severe weather. I'll have more on this each day this week.

Beautiful Day On Tap

Less in the way of cloud cover than I expected has lead to another chilly start, but temperatures are quickly rising into the 30s this morning. Most of the day will be sunny, but a few cirrus clouds moving from the south may encroach on the area by later this afternoon. These high clouds will be the first indication that our weather will be changing in the next 24-48 hours. Indeed, a storm system moving into the Gulf of Mexico will affect South Texas and the extreme northern Gulf coast today, but we should remain dry through sunrise tomorrow morning. Highs will top out around 59 this afternoon. Clouds will thicken and lower as we go into the evening and overnight hours. Along with a light easterly wind, temperatures should remain above freezing for only the second time so far this year. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 40.

A pretty good soaking is likely tomorrow with the majority of the precipitation occurring from the late morning hours through early Sunday morning. If you're headed to Bryant-Denny Stadium to celebrate the Crimson Tide's national championship, be sure to take an umbrella or poncho because it will be wet. Highs will stay in the 50s Saturday and Sunday. Our warm pattern will remain in place next week, but an active subtropical jet promises to bring more rain and possibly thunderstorms to the area next week.

Winter Thaw Begins

A much warmer pattern looks to lock in through the extended forecast period as the westerlies associated with the polar jet are located across the northern U.S. The subtropical jet will remain active over the southern U.S., so it's not likely we'll get tremendously warm. High pressure to our east will allow for a southerly flow to develop today, which should allow for an increase in lower level moisture. Moisture began increasing in the mid-levels last night as evident by the spotty cloudy cover across the region. This mid-level moisture should remain in place today and will lead to partly cloudy skies. This will keep temperatures from reaching their maximum potential, but we should still top out around 55. Clouds should thicken and lower some this evening and overnight as moisture continues to increase. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 29. Tonight's freezing temperatures will probably be the last we see for at least 10 days.

Abundant Sunshine, Warmer

After a chilly start this morning, we'll see a nice rebound in temperatures as a shortwave ridge builds across the region. Subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for an abundant supply of sunshine, which will propel highs to near 51 this afternoon. Tonight's forecast would be relatively straightforward if it weren't for some weak upper level energy approaching from Texas. There may be just enough moisture for a few clouds to develop after midnight, and this would disrupt ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 25.

A.M. Clouds, Cool

A cold front that passed through early this morning brought a reinforcing shot of polar air to the region. This air mass is much warmer than the arctic air mass we dealt with late last week and this past weekend. Most people probably got a little spoiled by highs in the upper 40s yesterday, but we'll be several degrees cooler today. A few low clouds may pass through this morning, but the majority of the day should be sunny. Highs will top out around 43. Very weak warm air advection will commence tonight as an upper level ridge begins to build across the region from the west. However, mostly clear skies, dry air, and light winds will support a strong radiational cooling. Lows around 20 tonight will be the coldest we'll feel in the foreseeable future.

Warming Up

After a frigid morning low of 13, temperatures are quickly rising into the upper teens. Skies should be sunny for the majority of the day as northwesterly flow aloft and surface ridging dominate. This will allow temperatures to rebound nicely this afternoon with highs around 44. Westerly winds may be breezy at times this afternoon with gusts in the upper teens. By this evening, an upper level shortwave and surface cold front will be approaching from the north. In advance of this system, a few high clouds will pass through, but I don't expect any precipitation since the air is extremely dry. Some lower clouds may develop after the front passes through the area around 3 a.m. Lows tomorrow morning will be around 24.

A Few Clouds, Very Cold

The arctic front that swept through the area yesterday afternoon is being felt in full force this morning. Temperatures are running around 17 with strong winds and clouds, which speaks volumes to the strength of this air mass. Speaking of strong winds, a tight pressure gradient is creating wind chills just above 0 this morning. Winds should slowly subside as we go through the day, but wind gusts will still consistently remain over 15 mph and make temperatures feel even colder. An approaching shortwave will push through the area today and will produce a few low clouds. At the same time, an active subtropical jet will be screaming over the region and will produce a band of cirrus clouds. Despite the lower and upper level clouds, there will still be a few peeks of sunshine. However, the combination of clouds, a snow pack to our northwest, and the arctic air overwhelmingly support undercutting guidance today. Expect highs to top out around 27 this afternoon. We should be mostly clear tonight, but a few clouds may continue to stick around. With lighter winds and less cloud cover than this morning, temperatures will be likely be near 14 tomorrow morning. If you're heading to the airport to greet the Alabama football team this evening, dress in layers because temperatures will be in the lower 20s for the arrival of the first flight and the upper teens for the second flight.

Afternoon Forecast

Big changes to the forecast are needed. Although radar echoes showed what appeared to be snow for much of this morning, very dry air in the lowest 5,000 feet was evaporating the snow before it reached the ground. After enough moistening, we finally saw decent burst of moderate snow mixed with sleet and rain in the Tuscaloosa area around noon. The snow and sleet briefly accumulated on elevated surfaces before melting. It's evident that the wave along the approaching arctic front has pulled slightly warmer temperatures aloft into our area and caused total melting of ice crystals. It's also clear that ground temperatures are too warm to support much in the way of accumulating snow without a sustained heavy burst. There is still another band of mixed precipitation moving into the western part of the county, but it should end by 2 p.m. Additional bands of precipitation are ongoing across Mississippi, and these should provide a few brief periods of light rain or snow through 5 p.m. The vast majority of the county will see little or no accumulations of snow. It would still be a good idea to use caution if you'll be traveling on roadways late this afternoon and evening as there will likely be some slick spots.

Snow, Turning Much Colder

The much anticipated winter weather threat has arrived but not without an early surprise. Temperatures overnight bottomed out at 24 before 3 a.m., but they have actually risen to near freezing now. This warming is due to a wave along an approaching arctic front that stretches from central Indiana to northwest Louisiana. However, the snow flurries that are currently falling across the county should prevent a significant northward surge of the warm bubble of temperatures evident across central Mississippi. Without the snow falling, temperatures would probably rise into the upper 30s as the wave along the front gets closer. It doesn't appear as this current batch of snow will be continuous, and as a result, temperatures will still probably top out near 35 late this morning. More importantly, the snow flurries falling will help to moisten and cool the lowest 5,000 feet of the troposphere as we go through the morning hours.

A more concentrated area of precipitation is ongoing across central Mississippi and this should spread eastward over the course of the day. There may be some sleet mixed with the snow flurries this morning, but I think the overwhelming majority of this event should be all snow. The main snow event should begin after 11 a.m., but accumulations likely won't occur until after noon. I still expect up to an inch of snow to fall around the county. Roadways will likely become slick this afternoon, so please use caution if you'll be traveling. The arctic front should plow through the area after 3 p.m. with snow continuing to fall through 6 p.m. After the snow exits, temperatures will begin to plummet as the arctic air infiltrates the state. In fact, temperatures will fall to near 20 by 11 p.m. Compounding matters will be a tight pressure gradient that will setup late tonight through tomorrow morning. This pressure gradient will allow winds to gust up to 25 mph very early Friday morning, which will put wind chills into the single digits at times. With a fresh snow pack in place, lows tomorrow morning will be near 14.

Winter Weather Advisory Issued

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a winter weather advisory for Tuscaloosa County until Thursday at 9 p.m. I have no major disagreements with their forecast at this time. I still think that sleet will begin around 10 a.m. and then change over to all snow after 11 a.m. Most places around the county will average around an inch (slightly less south and slightly more north) of snow before it ends around 6 p.m. Roads will likely become slick tomorrow afternoon so use extreme caution if you have to travel. Kudos to school officials for making an early decision to close all area schools tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if classes are canceled Friday as well.

Increasing Clouds, Slightly Warmer

Light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the mid teens again this morning. Today will easily be the warmest day of the the next five days, but it will still remain on the chilly side. The arctic air mass currently in place began modifying yesterday and will continue to do so today. Also, a clipper coming out of Canada will swing southeast today and will contribute to a slight increase in temperatures throughout the troposphere. The majority of the day should be sunny, but a few high clouds may arrive early this evening. Highs should be able to top out around 39 before any clouds arrive. Tonight may be the warmest night for almost a week due to an increase in cloud cover and a weak southerly wind component developing. The clipper will swing closer towards the region, but I feel like any precipitation should hold off until after sunrise tomorrow morning. The low will be around 25 in the morning.

It still looks like we'll see some snow tomorrow, but there may be a brief period of some sleet mixed in at the onset of the event. The sleet may begin after 10 a.m. tomorrow morning, but I'm expecting the bulk of the precipitation to affect the area from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. As is usually the case with these clippers, there won't be a ton of moisture associated with it. However, I think we stand to see up to an inch of snow once all is said and done. As a result, roads may become slick tomorrow afternoon so be careful if you have to do any traveling.

Sunny, Continued Cold

It's bitterly cold this morning if you've stepped outside for any time as temperatures are running in the mid teens. We'll be on the subsident side of an upper level trough today which should yield an abundant supply of sunshine. It will remain cold as a slowly modifying arctic air mass remains in place, but we should at least warm above freezing this afternoon. Indeed, highs should top out around 35, but breezy northwest winds will make the temperature feel even colder at times. We should be thankful that winds have caused enough mixing at night to prevent temperatures from bottoming out. Tonight, however, it does appear that winds will be more calm than we've seen the last few nights. As a result, lows will be similar to this morning as we'll start the day with a temperature around 17.

It's looking more likely that we'll see some snow on Thursday, but the bigger story will be the dangerous cold that will invade the state Thursday night through Sunday. It's too early to forecast specific snow amounts, but it seems possible that we could pick up 1-2" of snow on Thursday. After the passage of the clipper, temperatures will plummet, and we should remain below freezing for close to 72 consecutive hours. Lows on Saturday and Sunday morning may be in the single digits. To add insult to injury, wind chills at some times between early Friday morning and late Saturday morning may be below 0! We should finally see temperatures return to normal late next week.

Cloudy and Cold

Despite cloudy skies, temperatures are still running in the mid 20s this morning. An upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow aloft generated an impressive looking area of snow on radar. However, very dry air near the surface has only resulted in a few snow flurries being observed across the county. Some additional flurries will be possible through the late morning hours. The cloud cover looks to stick around for much of the day, but we may see a few peeks of sun late this afternoon. Highs will top out around 34 this afternoon, but breezy northwest winds will make it feel even colder. By this evening, skies will become clear as very dry air will be in place. Once again, however, wind speeds will remain around 5 mph, which will prevent ideal radiational cooling. Even with the winds remaining up, the strength of this air mass will result in lows around 16 tomorrow morning.

I'm still closely watching the potential for snow on Thursday. Model discrepancies remain an issue, but there will be a winter storm somewhere in the Southeast late this week. After the storm exits, the coldest air in several years will infiltrate the region and could bring widespread single digit lows to the state. For those looking for any relief from the cold, don't despair because there may be some hope by the middle to late part of next week. It looks like the pattern may temporarily support highs back near normal.

Mostly Sunny, Breezy, & Much Colder

A few light showers occurred overnight, and temperatures are chilly again this morning with temperatures near 40. We'll be on the convergent side of an exiting upper level trough, and as a result, we should have to a chance to dry out for several days. The dry weather will come with a price though. That price will be the coldest air of the season, which is poised to invade the state tonight and may last for at least a week. In the meantime, skies are partly cloudy this morning, but a few more clouds may pass through later this morning. Once the clouds pass to our south, the afternoon should feature an abundance of sunshine. With weak cold air advection and NNW winds coming off a snow pack to our north, highs won't rise much today. In fact, we'll only top out around 44 this afternoon. Winds may gust over 20 mph today, and this will make temperatures feel even colder.

Skies will be clear tonight and the air will be very dry with dew points dropping into the upper teens by sunrise tomorrow morning. The only negative factor for ideal radiational cooling will be winds remaining between 5 and 10 mph through the morning hours. However, upstream observations this morning show that lows are colder than what was forecast by MOS guidance yesterday. Therefore, I'm going to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 26 tomorrow morning.

The weather to start the new year will feature highs and lows at least 10-15 degrees below normal. While that's not exactly record breaking, the duration of the cold period will be impressive. We'll also have to watch late next week for the potential for a winter storm. A strong upper level short wave will drop southward out of Canada and will set the stage for some accumulating snow across the Deep South. This is still almost 6 days away, but there is general agreement on the upper air pattern next week. This pattern would certainly support a high likelihood for snow somewhere in the region, but subtle timing and placement differences of the upper air features preclude a high confidence forecast for a more specific threat area. Nevertheless, this will be something to watch closely over the next several days. After the passage of the late week storm system, even colder air will likely invade the region for the following weekend.