Windy, Much Colder

The heaviest rain across the state is well to our east, but light showers will continue to fall through 10 a.m. The cold front passed through the county just a short time ago, but the cold air is not far behind. When this cold air arrives, temperatures will begin to drop throughout the day and should be near 41 by noon and 37 by 5 p.m. The sunshine may return late this afternoon, but this will not be able to help temperatures, especially with west northwest winds crossing a snow pack across Arkansas. Speaking of winds, they will be strong today with gusts up the 25 mph, which will only make temperatures feel even colder this afternoon. The winds will only become stronger tonight with some gusts up to 30 mph possible before midnight. Mostly clear skies and dry air favor radiational cooling, but strong winds will keep the near ground layer mixed enough to prevent temperatures from plummeting. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

The trend in the model guidance for Friday's storm system is southward. Although the pattern certainly favors a suppressed storm track, it just seems as though most models are a little too flat with the 500 mb pattern, including the European model. Many systems this year, particularly forecast by the GFS, have been too flat in their medium range solutions. The European is not typically as flat as the GFS, so this does lend some support for the GFS. However, the 00Z Canadian solution shows a slightly deeper system, which induces weak ridging downstream. This results in a low pressure track that is along the northern Gulf Coast. This solution seems to be more meteorologically sound, but it is worth noting that the Canadian is an outlier. I do think the global models will eventually shift back to the north again, but it probably won't be as far north as the Canadian.

So what does this mean for Friday's weather? There is a good chance for accumulating snows in Alabama. I still think the best chance of snow will be to our south, but even around Tuscaloosa, we still have a chance of seeing some light snow. I'll post any new thoughts I might have tomorrow morning.