Cloudy, Storms This Afternoon

Temperatures have held steady the last several hours around 57. A few passing showers moved through a short time ago, but a more concentrated area of rain should arrive later today with a cold front. The cold front is currently located across Western Arkansas and will be approaching the I-55 corridor early this afternoon. The best chance of rain and thunderstorms will be late this morning and through the afternoon hours, but I'm not expecting any severe weather for our area since instability will be very low. With extensive cloud cover and the presence of rain around throughout the day, temperatures likely won't rise much today. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 64 this afternoon.

The cold front should move through the area early this evening, but the upper low will graze us late tonight and could squeeze out a few showers before midnight. Afterward, skies should gradually clear and we'll drop 42 by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be another transition day before a powerful storm arrives in here on Thursday and brings another round of severe weather to the state.

Passing High Clouds, Mild

Fortunately, a few convective complexes to our south prevented a major severe weather outbreak Friday night. However, a wake low event passed through the area early Saturday morning and caused very strong winds that littered the streets with small limbs. The cold front passed through on Saturday afternoon, and in its wake was a much cooler air mass that was felt yesterday. Our weather will quickly transition warm again as another storm system digging through the Rockies has resulted in lee side cyclogenesis. In response to this, our winds have switched back to the south and will remain that way through today. Aloft, the influence of jet streaks will cause a few high clouds to pass through at times today. This may prevent highs from reaching their maximum potential, but I still think we'll top out around 70 this afternoon.

By this evening, an area of low pressure will be located over Kansas and will advect a significant increase in low level moisture. This will cause a stratus cloud deck to develop this evening and will keep temperatures much warmer than last night. Southerly winds should also remain strong this evening so I'll forecast a morning low of 54. Rain will return to the forecast tomorrow as another cold front approaches. Our current progressive pattern also suggests we may have a shot at rain every few days for the next week or so.

Warm, Severe Storms Overnight

We were grazed overnight by a large convective complex that dropped copious amounts of rain in drought-stricken areas to our south. A few showers are currently lingering just to our north and west and it's possible we could see a few sprinkles before 8 a.m. However, the strong impulse that generated the light rain and large convective complex to our south will soon pass through and may actually allow for a long period of dry weather today. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s thanks southerly winds and low clouds. Low clouds will be left in the wake of this disturbance for much of the morning hours, but we may be able to see some sunshine for this afternoon.. In fact, infrared satellite imagery suggests that the sun may be mixed with the clouds at times this afternoon, as suggested by the GFS, and this may boost temperatures to near 77.

By this evening, a powerful upper air disturbance located over Texas will begin to swing eastward. In response to this, aloft, upper level winds will significantly strengthen. At the surface, a surface low pressure center and associated cold front over Northeast Texas will slide eastward and will be located in Northwest Mississippi by midnight tonight. In advance of this low and cold front, moisture will rapidly increase, but it appears that the large convective complex this morning may disrupt the quality of the moisture return. The quality of the moisture returns holds large ramifications on the weather threats tonight. Regardless of the quality of moisture return, a squall line should consolidate and march across lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Just ahead of this squall line, if dew points can jump back up to 64, a narrow window will exist for a few discrete supercells to form in Northeast Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and Western Mississippi after 9 p.m. The key question will likely be how long these isolated supercells, if they develop, can remain discrete? If they remain discrete for several hours, this greatly increases the chance for tornadoes in our area given that the surface low and warm front will be in close proximity. If these storms are absorbed into the squall line, there will still be a threat of isolated tornadoes, but damaging winds would be the primary threat. Given the forecast orientation of the shear vectors with respect to the cold front, I think it's possible that the supercells will remain discrete for a few hours after they form, but I think the squall line's faster speed will absorb the cells before they reach Oktibbeha County. Therefore, I think our main threat will be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado is certainly possible. The storms should roll through our area between 1-4 a.m. I understand this is a time when most people will be in bed, but I think it would be a wise investment to buy a weather radio today. Turn it on tonight, and you'll have peace of mind knowing that you'll be warned for severe weather overnight. The low temperature tomorrow morning will be 62.

If there is a silver lining to the severe weather, it's that the weekend weather looks much cooler. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s on Saturday afternoon despite the cold frontal passage on Saturday morning. It looks like skies may clear Saturday afternoon and allow for some sunshine. That may be short lived as the upper air disturbance pivots across the region Saturday night. Low clouds will return and a few sprinkles are possible early Sunday morning. With low clouds around much of Saturday and cold air advection, we may only top out near 60. We'll warm up nicely again next week with another chance of storms possible early in the week.

SPC Day 2 Discussion

As much as I criticize and nitpick the SPC's convective outlooks, this is a vintage SPC outlook and discussion. I can't believe I'm going to say this -- excellent discussion!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day2otlk_20090326_0600.html

YOU MUST HAVE A WEATHER RADIO!

It has been a dangerous morning already in Southeast Mississippi as this area was raked by nighttime tornadoes. It appears that Simpson, Jasper, and Jones Counties were the hardest hit. We managed to stay damage free, but a severe thunderstorm warning was issued in the early morning hours for Oktibbeha County. This event just drives home the point that you MUST have a working weather radio in every home because we get too many nighttime tornadoes and severe weather in this state to not have a radio!

A warm front retreated northward overnight and then a cold front passed and pushed all of the rain and storms south of the area earlier this morning. In its wake the air mass is more stable as temperatures are running in the mid 50s. Today will be a day of transition as we will be between two big storm systems. The next we'll turn our attention to is currently diving into the Four Corners. Until we deal with this system, however, today looks to be pleasant with clearing skies this morning. The return of the sun will only help to boost temperatures well into the 70s. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 74 this afternoon; I would forecast a couple of degrees higher if 2-3" of rain had not fallen overnight. Clouds will return after midnight this evening as the same pseudo-warm front retreats northward and a couple of upper air disturbances pass close to the area. These disturbances may also kick off a few showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours, but most of these storm should remain below severe limits. Once again, better severe weather possibilities exist to the south. With low clouds and southerly winds remaining up overnight, I think the low tomorrow morning will be 62.

Rain in the Morning; Storms Possible Overnight

Temperatures are starting out quite muggy this morning thanks to cloud cover, rain, and strong winds. The rain that's fallen overnight and will continue to fall throughout much of the morning is associated with a cold front that is currently located along the Natchez Trace. This front will quickly lose steam and looks to get hung up just north of our area. The current batch of rain should continue through most of the morning hours, but it looks like we may dry out this afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to rise much this morning, but we may be able to top out around 68 this afternoon, despite cloudy skies.

By tonight, an upper air disturbance moving through Texas will develop another round of convection that will form along the stalled frontal boundary. This convection will move our way and expand in coverage as an area of low pressure develops along the front in Western Mississippi. This will combine to greatly increase the chances for rain overnight and some thunderstorms could be thrown in the mix as well given that the NAM and GFS are forecasting limited instability. I don't think the storms will get out of hand, but an isolated severe storm is not out of the realm of possibility. I think the main threats will be hail and damaging winds. The greater threat for severe weather will be just to our south where slightly higher instability will reside. However, if greater instability is realized and storms are rooted in the boundary layer, they could pose a tornado threat given the proximity of the frontal boundary will enhance the low level shear. I'll be watching this closely through the day and will update the blog if changes are needed. The front will push south of the area tomorrow morning, and temperatures will be cooler as you head to work and school. The morning low will be near 53.

Friday's system continues to really worry me, especially given that the -NAO configuration has lead to blocking across much of Eastern Canada and will result in the system digging farther south before it ejects out. The surface low will likely track further south, which places much of Mississippi in line for some of the strongest dynamics. Given the forecast instability and shear parameters, Friday looks to be a red letter day. Now is the time to go ahead and develop a tornado plan with your family or your roommates. I can't stress enough the importance of purchasing a weather radio since it appears that this could be a nighttime outbreak. You should have a weather radio regardless, but it's especially important for Friday night. It's a better investment than a smoke detector and you'll use it much more. Of course, not to say that you shouldn't also have a working smoke detector. I'll continue to post new thoughts in the coming days about Friday.

Warm and Windy; Storms Overnight

Low clouds, moderate winds, and a weak warm front passage overnight all played a role in keeping temperatures in the mid 50s. The big weather maker on the maps this morning is a strong midlatitude cyclone with double barreled low pressure centers in South Dakota and Oklahoma. An associated cold front extends from roughly Sioux City, SD to Kansas City to Tulsa to Abilene, TX. The main dynamics with this storm system will pass well to our north, but our area will be on the southern fringe of the dynamics. As the aforementioned cold front slowly moves eastward, it should trigger a renewed area of strong/severe convection to our west; these storms will remain to our west through the day. Clouds, on the other hand, will be around for much of the day, but I think we get enough sunshine to see temperatures top out near 75 this afternoon. It will also be breezy again today with wind gusts near 30 mph at times.

By this evening, the cold front inches closer to the state and it's possible a few showers could develop after 8 p.m. However, I think the better chance for rain and storms holds off until after 2 a.m. tomorrow morning. With the timing of the storms coming in overnight, this will keep instability values very low and I'm not expecting severe weather for our area. I think the better chance for severe storms will be in Western Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. That being said, don't be surprised if you're awoken by thunder overnight. The low temperature will be a muggy 62 tomorrow morning.

What I am becoming more concerned with is the chance for severe weather at the end of the week. This has been hinted at by various models for the last few days, but the agreement between the models increased considerably yesterday. At this point, it's pointless to talk about the mesoscale environment, but the synoptic environment for this event would seem to point to a near classic setup for a severe weather outbreak in the lower Mississippi Valley. A potent upper level disturbance will combine with a stronger than normal subtropical jet stream, aided by convection in the Central Pacific, to produce a very favorable pattern for large scale ascent and substantial wind shear. A strong low level jet will pump moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and will contribute to a broad and unstable warm sector. These factors will all set the stage for a threat of big time storms on Friday evening. Stay tuned to the blog this week as I'll be following this system very closely.

Cloudy, Mild, & Breezy

This past weekend is what I call perfect weather with cool nights and mild afternoons. The first part of the work week will continue to be pleasant, but big changes are in store for most of the week. We're currently starting off the day with temperatures in the lower 50s, but cloud cover associated with a passing upper air disturbance has moved into the area and will likely continue for much of the day. Despite the mostly cloudy skies, most locations should still be able to manage to top out near 70 again this afternoon. In fact, I'll forecast an afternoon high of 70. If there is a little more sunshine than I expect, temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees warmer. Additionally, stronger boundary layer winds and an increasing pressure gradient will allow winds to be breezy this afternoon.

By this evening, a warm front to our southwest will gradually lift northward in response to a strong low pressure center that will be moving across the Central Plains. Moisture will increase at the surface and aloft and this will keep skies mostly cloudy overnight. With southerly winds remaining constant, I'll shoot above guidance and forecast a low of 56 tomorrow morning.

Spring Has Sprung!

Spring officially began at 6:44 this morning, and today's weather will match the season to a tee. A cold front pushed through yesterday and ushered in a cooler air mass across the region. Still, sunny skies will keep temperatures very pleasant today. I think highs will top out around 65 this afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear this evening with light winds. A few clouds may arrive just after sunrise, but I don't think these will play a role in the morning temperature. I think the low will be 39 tomorrow morning. The weekend looks perfect for any outdoor-related activities. Skies will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday with highs near 70 and the lower 70s, respectively.

Afternoon Clouds, Warm

We've enjoyed a string of warmer weather after the rain finally cleared out on Monday, and we'll continue the warm trend for one more day. A cold front will approach the area later today and will bring an increase in cloud cover to the area this afternoon and evening. This front will be losing steam as it moves through, and I feel that we will remain dry despite its passage. Additionally, some gusty winds are likely this afternoon as the pressure gradient increases. Temperatures this afternoon will likely top out around 75. Clouds will clear after midnight and morning temperatures should be around 42. Tomorrow looks much cooler with highs back into the 60s.

Wet End to Week

A steady, chilly rain has been falling for several hours overnight and this morning. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s and they won't won't rise much today with extensive cloud cover and off and on showers. I think highs this afternoon will be around 47. A surface low will develop to our south tonight that will slowly move to the northeast. Rain could become more concentrated tonight as this front retreats northward and it's possible this storm could drop up to 3" of rain before all is said and done. Additionally, the retreating warm front will cause temperatures to actually rise overnight, and temperatures in the morning will be around 51. A few showers will be around primarily Saturday morning, but temperatures will be warmer with highs in the mid 50s. We dry out and warm even more on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s. I'll be taking a few days off from the blog to celebrate spring break, but check back next Thursday when daily forecasts will resume!

Cloudy, Showery, & Chilly

We have another complex forecast in store today with temperatures and rain chances. The only thing that will not be complex to forecast is the extensive cloud cover; we'll be cloudy all day today. The passage of yesterday's cold front has placed us in the cold sector, but warm air advection, isentropic lift, and positive vorticity advection will all contribute to a chance of rain today. That being said, the best lifting appears to be to our north and I think that will be where the steady, moderate rain will occur. However, we may have to contend with a few showers at times today so it wouldn't be a bad idea to carry an umbrella with you to work or school. With temperatures currently running in the mid 40s, I don't think we will see a lot of change in temperatures throughout the day. In fact, we may hold steady in the mid 40s for most of the morning and afternoon. I'll forecast a high of 46 this afternoon, but again, there likely won't be much change in the temperature today.

Overnight, the lifting in our area will increase and rain chances will be quite high tonight and into Friday morning. The temperature may slightly rise after midnight and we could be near 47 tomorrow morning. The end of the work week looks absolutely wet with over 3" of rain possible tomorrow!

Snap Back to Reality

Yes, it's still winter in case the last several days had you believing the calendar had already flipped to spring. Temperatures held steady in the lower 60s overnight ahead of a cold front, but the cold front is knocking on our doorstep and temperatures are beginning to drop. All of the dynamics with this front are well removed from our area and this has contributed to very little rainfall along the front (behind the front is a different story!). However, a few sprinkles or some light rain is possible, but most areas will remain dry. That's a good thing because the end of the week and the weekend look wet, wet, and more wet as we transition to an El Nino-like pattern. If you want a sneak peak, take a look at a radar around Central Texas.

In the meantime, today will be cloudy and cooler behind the front. In fact, we've hit out warmest temperatures of the day so far and the temperature will only drop through the 50s during the morning hours. By this afternoon, temperatures will be in the upper 40s to near 50 so it will feel nearly 30 degrees colder than the last couple of days! By this evening, clouds will continue to remain in place, but temperatures will still be dropping through the 40s. There is a chance that some rain could creep into the area just before sunrise tomorrow, but it will be of the liquid variety. It should be much colder with lows around 40 in the morning.

One Last Warm Day

I'm not sure I like the new time change in the morning because it makes it a little tough to wake up when it's still dark! Anyway, light winds allowed the temperature to drop into the upper 50s so far this morning. Our ridge will begin to break down later this afternoon as it is shifted eastward by a digging trough over the Plains. Clouds will be off an on again today, but forecast soundings show less in the way of cloud cover this afternoon than yesterday. Infrared satellite imagery suggests this may be possible as the upper level southwesterly flow transports most of the thicker clouds to our north and west. However, low clouds will likely be more prominent than the previous couple of days. With this in mind, I'll forecast an afternoon high of 79. Get outside and enjoy today if you can because the rest of the week looks cloudy and cool. Low level moisture and clouds will increase overnight as a frontal boundary begins to approach the region. I prefer the later timing of the front and don't think it arrives as fast as the GFS suggests. Therefore, I think we remain dry overnight, but temperatures will be mild. Look for a morning low of 61 tomorrow.

Warmest Day of the Year on Tap

What a great weekend weatherwise with warm temperatures and dry conditions. We'll start the work week off in the same fashion as a new upper level ridge builds over the region. The only fly in the ointment today is a very subtle shortwave that is forecast to move across North Mississippi this afternoon. This feature will likely spark off a few showers, but I think the best rain chances will be located just to our north. Still, I don't want to completely rule out the chance of a shower this afternoon. Skies will remain partly cloudy today and that will allow temperatures to soar underneath the ridge. I'll forecast a high of 81 this afternoon which will be the warmest temperature so far this year. Low clouds will once again stream in overnight and this will keep morning lows well above normal. The temperature tomorrow morning will be around 60.

If you're tired of the warm weather already, you can look forward to the end of the week. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday and will bring a change to cooler weather for Thursday and Friday.

Partly Cloudy, Warm; Great Weekend Weather

Southerly winds and a few clouds helped keep temperatures in the lower 50s overnight. Today is shaping up to be somewhat similar to yesterday in that low clouds may be around for much of the morning before afternoon sunshine dominates. There will be more sunshine at times this morning than compared to yesterday so that should allow for slightly warmer temperatures. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 76 today. Low cloud cover looks to increase again this evening so expect another warm evening. Given that we seem to be warmer at night than guidance suggests with clouds and winds, I'll forecast a low of 57 tomorrow morning.

The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice so get outside and enjoy the weather if you can. Saturday will feature morning clouds and afternoon sun with highs in the upper 70s. There may be a few more clouds throughout the day on Sunday, but I still feel that temperatures will be in the mid 70s. A weak disturbance will be passing to our northwest by this time, and the chance of a shower can't completely be ruled out Sunday afternoon. It's possible the air conditioner might be turned on for the first time of the year this weekend!

***Remember to set your clocks forward by 1 hour before you go to sleep Saturday night to account for Daylight Saving Time. That's right, you'll lose an hour of sleep this time!***

Mostly Cloudy, Mild

A few clouds and persistent south winds kept temperatures in the upper 40s for much of the night. An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched over the area this afternoon and southerly winds will allow for warm temperatures this afternoon. The only fly in the ointment appears to be a low stratus deck that has developed with the increase in low level moisture. Forecasting the evolution of this cloud cover will be the key to this afternoon's high. Forecast soundings show these clouds will likely persist for much of the day but should gradually raise in height this afternoon. With this in mind, I'll forecast a high of 68 his afternoon. Clouds may gradually thin some overnight, but mostly cloudy skies will still dominate. However, south winds will remain strong again this evening so I'll shoot above guidance and forecast a low of 52.

Mostly Sunny, Warming Trend Begins

Skies cleared at times overnight and allowed the temperature to drop just below freezing. This clearing trend should continue for most of the day and we should see mostly sunny skies. The combination of a building upper level ridge, warm air advection, and southerly winds will spell much warmer temperatures today areawide. I'll forecast the afternoon high to top out around 61. An upper air disturbance will ridge along the ridge and should increase high level cloud cover again this evening so I'll forecast a low of 41. Enjoy the warm weather because it should hang around for the next several days.

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning Criteria

Before or by July 1, 2009, NWS offices in the Central Region will upgrade the criteria for the issuance of severe thunderstorm warnings. The current criteria is based on winds of 58 mph or greater and hail 3/4" or larger. The 58 mph or greater criterion will remain, but the hail criterion will be increased to 1" or larger. I think this is an excellent decision, especially for the areas in this part of the country that experience large hail. I feel this new criteria is beneficial for a multitude of reasons, but most importantly, this will reduce the number of severe thunderstorm warnings and prevent the public from becoming desensitized to severe thunderstorm warnings.

Other regions are discussing the possibility of following suit, but I'm sure they will wait until public feedback can be collected. I strongly believe that this should NOT be a nationwide policy because hail impacts from one region to another may be interpreted differently. For example, a resident in Kansas would likely not feel threatened by 3/4" hail. Another resident in Maine may feel more impacted by the same size hail since it occurs much less frequently. Similar to winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings, I feel each region should set their own criteria for severe thunderstorm warnings. However, this does pose considerable questions with regards to severe thunderstorm research and should be discussed for quite some time (i.e. implementation of the Enhanced Fujita Scale).

Click below to listen to a webcast detailing the new criteria:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/One_Inch_Hail_Podcast.wmv

A Few Clouds This Afternoon, Still Cool

It's a very cold start this morning as temperatures dropped to 25 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air. The majority of the cloud cover on the backside of a trough stayed to our west overnight, but it appears as though some of these high clouds may arrive early this afternoon. These clouds may have a minor impact on the high, but they will likely have a bigger role in dictating tomorrow morning's temperature. The air mass over us today will be slightly warmer than yesterday so expect highs to be about 5 degrees or so warmer this afternoon. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 51. There will likely be more clouds this evening and this will keep temperatures from plummeting. However, the thickness of the clouds will govern whether we drop in the upper 20s or stay in the lower 30s. The clouds to our northwest over Kansas appear to be fairly thick, and this keeps me inclined to forecast a low of 31 tomorrow morning. The big warming trend begins tomorrow with highs in the 60s and then 70s forecast through the end of the work week.

Starkville Snow

Sunny, Chilly

In my eight and a half years of living in Starkville, this past weekend will go down in my books as the wildest weather weekend I've experienced. From severe weather and flooding on Friday and Saturday morning to snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Yesterday's snow was aided by a deformation zone that move through, which provided the burst of heavier precipitation. Despite the warm, wet ground, the heavy snow eventually stuck and resulted in accumulations around 2" in most places. As is usually the case with late season upper level low events, the snow quickly melted by late Sunday morning. We'll now turn our attention to much warmer weather this week.

However, before we do that, we'll have to first endure a couple of cool days. Although the computer models don't show anything in the way of cloud cover today, there are a few mid and upper level clouds being accompanied by a strong jet streak to our north. I feel that most of the day will be mostly sunny, but a few passing clouds will prevent full sunshine. This shouldn't play a significant impact on high temperatures today so I'll forecast a high of 45. Skies should be clear by this evening and it looks like we'll experience decent radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, I'll forecast a low of 24 tomorrow morning.