Temperatures Remaining Below Normal

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning as a result of an approaching upper level disturbance. The strongest forcing associated with the shortwave trough will stay well to our south. Although weak pieces of upper level energy will be moving across our area, the air is very dry in the lowest 5,000 feet. Therefore, I think we should remain dry today. With extensive mid-level cloud cover, highs will continue to be well below normal as we top out around 54. Skies should slowly begin to clear after 9 p.m. With light winds and dry air in place, temperatures will be chilly again tomorrow morning with lows near 31.

Saturday and Sunday look to be transition days before our next storm system arrives on Monday. A slight warm up is expected Sunday, but the suppressed storm track supports below normal temperatures. A few clouds will be possible tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 50s. Our next chance of rain will be late Monday night and Tuesday. With the recent upturn in the SOI and the blocking across Canada weakening, I expect a brief warm up after March 5.

Sunny, Cold

It's very cold this morning with temperatures running in the mid 20s. A messy upper air pattern will begin to evolve today as a strong trough pivots over the Eastern Seaboard and a shortwave trough ejects out of the Four Corners. Weak energy will emanate from the trough in the West and move in our general direction tonight. We should get through the daylight hours with an abundant supply of sunshine, but it will be chilly as a Canadian high pressure dominates. Highs should top out around 49 this afternoon, which will be 15 degrees below normal. A few high clouds will increase before midnight in advance of subtle upper level disturbances approaching the area. However, the strength of this air mass should still allow lows to dip down to 28. If you're tired of the cold weather, hang tight because it looks like a warmer weather pattern will develop in the next 10 days.

Light Rain, Flurries Possible Overnight

Colder air has filtered into the state as a northern stream trough digs into the Mid South. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the southern stream will approach from the west. The southern stream disturbance will be the one to watch because it is generating a large swath of wintry precipitation across Texas. We won't have to deal with any precipitation issues during the day. Cloud cover will be an issue today, and it appears that low clouds are slowly eroding across Pickens County. The erosion is trying to work its way to the east, and it's possible that we may see some broken clouds this morning. However, clouds will thicken again this afternoon in advance of the southern stream disturbance. Highs should top out around 53 this afternoon if we can get a few peeks of sun this morning.

By this evening, most of the precipitation that is currently over Texas will weaken as it moves eastward. However, as the northern and southern stream disturbances begin to phase, some light precipitation may develop after 3 a.m. Forecast soundings suggest that a mix of rain and some snow flurries will be possible, but no travel problems are anticipated since surface temperatures will remain above freezing. In fact, lows tomorrow morning will be near 37. A chilly and active weather pattern looks to continue for the next week plus.

Cloudy, Slightly Cooler

Yesterday's high of 72 was the warmest temperature since November 15, but don't get used to the warmth because cold air is poised to return to the state this week. A cold front swept through the state earlier this morning and was accompanied by some light to moderate rainfall. Although we experienced a frontal passage, temperatures will not be extremely cold due to the Pacific origin of the air mass. However, extensive cloud cover in the wake of the frontal passage will ensure that highs top out around 59 this afternoon. Clouds don't look to break up very much, if at all, tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten after 9 p.m. and winds could gust over 20 mph at times through sunrise. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 39. Enjoy today because it could be the last mild day for possibly a week and a half. Starting Wednesday, highs will be much below normal for the foreseeable future.

Mostly Sunny, Comfortable

Today will seem like a heat wave compared to recent temperatures, but temperatures today will still be slightly below normal for this time of the year. A subtle disturbance moving out of the Gulf of Mexico is creating some cloud cover to out south and west. Some of this cloud cover, mainly high cirrus clouds, will arrive later this morning, but it should not have a major impact on afternoon highs. The main weather influence today will be a surface high shifting to our east, which will allow highs to top out around 60. Skies should be mostly clear tonight with lows dipping down to 31.

On Saturday, a disturbance digging into the Southwest U.S. will pump a ridge over the southern Plains and Southeast. This should result in a full blown heat wave across the region this weekend. Saturday looks excellent with just a few clouds in the afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 60s. Clouds will return Sunday in advance of a developing storm system, but I think we'll be dry through the daylight hours. Highs should top out in the mid 60s. Rain will return late Sunday night. Colder air will return Tuesday with highs below normal again, but this air mass does not appear to be as cold as recent air masses.

Sunny, Slightly Warmer

As our upper level flow becomes more zonal through the day, temperatures will moderate, but highs will still remain below normal. High pressure situated over the Deep South will promote strong subsidence and an abundant supply of sunshine. Highs should top out around 56 this afternoon. With high pressure almost directly over the area tonight, temperatures will be primed to drop quickly once the sun sets. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

Mostly Sunny, Slightly Warmer

Upper level disturbances continue to rotate around the deep trough over the Northeast U.S. When the uplift associated with these disturbances encounters some lingering low level moisture, low clouds develop. A few passing clouds will be possible this morning, but we should be mostly sunny this afternoon. As the aforementioned trough moves northeast, low level temperatures will slowly warm. This warming aloft should correspond to slightly warmer temperatures at the surface today, but still well below normal (normal high is 61). Highs should top out around 50 this afternoon. Winds may also be breeze this afternoon with gusts between 15 and 20 mph. Another weak upper level disturbance will approach the area before midnight, so a few passing low clouds may be possible. Otherwise, skies should be clear overnight with dry air and clear skies. As a result, temperatures will be very chilly tomorrow with lows around 26.

Afternoon Clouds, Continued Cold

Skies cleared even faster than I imagined, and not surprisingly, temperatures are in the lower 20s this morning. An arctic high over the northern Plains will cause northwest surface winds across the area, which will lead to another chilly day. With strong surface heating and cold air aloft, we'll likely see some cumulus clouds develop late this morning and afternoon. Despite this, highs should be able to top out around 45. Winds will remain breezy today with wind chills remaining in the 30s for most of the day. Light winds and clear skies will support strong radiational cooling conditions overnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be around 25.

Mostly Sunny, Cold; Increasing Clouds Tonight

As is usually the case with Alberta Clippers, this one did not produce a lot of precipitation. Snow accumulated on the tops of cars overnight, but the bigger problem has been the icy patches on area roadways. These ice patches should melt within the next couple of hours as temperatures rise above freezing. In typical clipper fashion, much colder air has invaded the state with freezing temperatures being observed well south of Montgomery. Other than a few passing clouds, skies should be mostly sunny today. Despite this, strong cold air advection will allow highs to top out around 38. Winds will gradually weaken through the morning and afternoon hours, but breezy winds will produce wind chills in the upper 20s.

Clouds will increase this evening as the main upper level energy grazes the area. Also, a few snow flurries may be squeezed out between 5 and 8 p.m. Winds will pick up again between 5 p.m. and midnight with gusts up to 30 mph. Looking upstream, there is an extensive stratus deck behind the clipper system. These low clouds should slowly shift eastward with the movement of the trough. I think clouds will begin to break after midnight with mostly clear skies by sunrise. As a result, temperatures will be very cold tonight with lows around 25.

Snow Possible After Midnight

A strong arctic cold front is currently approaching Northwest Mississippi with light to moderate rain falling across Arkansas and snow falling in the colder air across Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky. This front will continue to push to the south and east tonight and should pass through the county between midnight and 1 a.m. Accompanying the front will be strong northwesterly winds with gusts possibly up to 30 mph. Some rain will occur ahead of the front before midnight, but the majority of the precipitation will be post-frontal. The precipitation after midnight will remain liquid for a few hours, but a changeover to snow appears likely once the true arctic air seeps in after 3 a.m. The snow will only last a few hours and should be to our east by 7 a.m. This event will feature an east to west gradient accumulation gradient instead of the north to south gradient we saw with Friday's event. I think western parts of the county (Moores Bridge and Elrod) will see a dusting, while communities in the eastern part of the county (Abernant) may see up to 2". For Tuscaloosa and Northport, I expect most areas to receive between a dusting and 1". This may result in a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses, so use caution if you're heading to work or dropping the kids off at school in the morning. Bundle up because it will be a blustery and cold day with highs staying in the 30s.

Snow Winding Down

The snow has been a beautiful sight to some today, but this event is beginning to wind down. All of Tuscaloosa County saw snow with a trace across the north and up to an inch across the south. In the cities of Tuscaloosa and Northport, the most common amounts I've seen are a dusting to a half an inch. A lot of the snow has actually melted this afternoon as temperatures have risen to 36. All of the snow should exit the county after 4 p.m. Although the road conditions are in good shape right now, I am worried about some icy patches developing on the roads after 7 p.m. as temperatures drop below freezing.


We'll see slightly warmer temperatures but still chilly tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies. Highs should be in the low to mid 40s. On Sunday, we'll quickly turn our attention to the north as a strong Clipper will approach the state late in the day. These systems typically are moisture starved, but there is decent agreement in the models that some light rain will arrive Sunday afternoon and may changeover to light snow late Sunday night through early Monday morning. Accumulations, if any, should be minor, but it's possible the roofs and tops of cars could be white when you wake up Monday morning. After the Clipper passes, arctic air will pour into the state with highs in the 30s Monday and Tuesday. The air mass will modify some by Wednesday with rebounding temperatures Thursday and Friday.

However, the moderation will be short-lived because strong blocking is forecast to shift into western Canada and Alaska by the end of next week in response to a tropically enhanced northern Pacific wave train. This will promote a highly amplified pattern with cross polar flow becoming established by next weekend. Needless to say, don't expect any prolonged periods of warmth anytime soon. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures in the last half of February are even colder than the first half of February.

Let It Snow!

Snow has fallen since about 8:30 a.m., but it has only begun to stick within the last hour. Many grassy areas and roofs are turning white, and this will only continue through the afternoon hours. The good news is that roads are okay right now, but that likely won't be the case by 2 p.m. The temperature is currently 33, and it should hit freezing within the next couple of hours. Please use caution if you'll be driving on area roads. It still appears as though the snow will end by 5 p.m. I'll have another update this afternoon.

Snow Day

We managed to dodge any snow overnight as the precipitation above the surface was just not heavy enough to cause evaporative cooling. Don't let that fool you because it will snow today, and in fact, it should begin by 9:00 a.m. It's going to take a little work for the snow to stick because the current temperature is 37. Granted, when the snow does begin to fall, the temperature will drop. However, the snow may not be heavy enough to drop the temperature below freezing; I will be optimistic and forecast that we reach 32 around 11 a.m. To remain consistent, I'm not going to change my totals (see my post from last night for a map) as I still expect there to be more snow in the southern part of the county than the northern part. Some roads could be slick, particularly north and south of Tuscaloosa. Even in Tuscaloosa and Northport, some bridges could become slick, so use caution if you'll be on the roads today. The main adjustment to my forecast is that the snow will likely stick around through 5 p.m. as the back edge of the precipitation shield is lingering across southern Arkansas. I actually think we'll see some clearing skies after 8 p.m., which will allow temperatures to get rather cold tonight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 24. Look for brief updates throughout the day.

Evening Thoughts

A big snowstorm is underway just to our west across Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. In fact, almost 9" of snow has already fallen in Dallas. The leading edge of the snow has now reached as far east as Central Mississippi. Light radar echoes are visible across West Alabama, but the air in the lowest 5,000 feet is still too dry for any precipitation to reach the surface. The current temperature and dew point at the Tuscaloosa Airport are 41 and 23, respectively, so it's safe to say that we should not see any precipitation before midnight. Several hours of moistening the lowest part of the troposphere will allow thermal profiles to be supportive of light snow after 3 a.m. The large majority of the snow that accumulates before sunrise should be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. However, it's possible that there could a few slick spots around the area tomorrow morning, mainly on bridges and overpasses. Be careful if you're heading to work. The good news for the youngsters is that Tuscaloosa City and County schools are closed tomorrow.


My thoughts have not really changed much regarding snowfall amounts. Due to strong upper level dynamics, a surface low is trying to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles east of Padre Island, TX. Pressure falls and thicknesses suggest the low should track eastward across the central Gulf through tomorrow morning. This lines up reasonably well with what the European has consistently shown for the last few days. An average of 1.5" seems to be a reasonable forecast for the area; up to an inch in the northern part of the county and possibly up to 2" in the southern part of the county. The cities of Tuscaloosa and Northport will probably be around 1.5" when the snow ends by 3 p.m.

Clouds Thicken, Slight Chance of Snow Overnight

High clouds will thicken throughout the day as a storm system in Texas moves eastward into the Gulf of Mexico. The leading edge of the precipitation shield is approaching Northeast Louisiana, and this should remain off to our south and west through the daylight hours. It will be chilly again today as the cold dome of high pressure to our north refuses to relent its grip across the region. Highs should top out around 44 this afternoon. Overnight, synoptic scale lift will become more favorable for precipitation, but dry air in the lowest 5,000 feet will have to moisten up before any precipitation can reach the surface. As the rain shield approaches from Mississippi, it will take a few hours before any precipitation can reach the surface. However, the atmosphere should be sufficiently moistened after 3 a.m. for light snow to fall. Any snow that falls could stick on grassy and elevated surfaces, but the relatively warm concrete should prevent major travel issues through sunrise. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 31.

As expected for the past couple of days, the models have trended northward with the surface low. Given the consistency of the Canadian and European models, it's hard to discredit either one. I think the Global Canadian is still too far north, and in fact, the Canadian ensembles actually place the surface low very close to the European's track. Therefore, I think the European solution is the best way to go, and based on it, I have adjusted my snow totals upward slightly. I expect between 1-1.5" to accumulate in the city, but up to 2" may fall in the southern part of the county. Some roads may become slick tomorrow, so use caution if you have to drive to work. I won't be surprised to hear about area school closings tomorrow once the NWS issues a winter weather advisory.

Once this system exits, we'll begin to turn our attention to the north where cold air is poised to invade the state next week in the wake of a Clipper. I think the NWS highs next week are way too warm. I'll discuss that and the winter weather threat in more detail tomorrow morning.

High Clouds Return, Chilly

A nice but chilly day is on tap as a cold dome of high pressure will be entrenched over the region. The sunny skies this morning won't last long as a band of high clouds associated with the southern branch of the jet stream will stream into the area throughout the day. It won't be cloudy, but there will be clouds overhead just about all day. Northwest winds flowing out of the surface high will be crossing a snow pack to our north, so temperatures will be chilly today with an afternoon high around 45. Winds will not be as strong as yesterday, but we may still have gusts up to 20 mph at times today. Additional high clouds will stream in overnight in advance of our next weather maker out in the Desert Southwest. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 27.

Now that the storm system in the Southwest U.S. has entered the North American upper air network, the majority of the models have come into agreement to suggest a very slight northward shift of the surface low. However, there is still not good agreement on the placement of the surface low. What is good news is that there is better agreement that the leading edge of the precipitation shield will extend further north. Regardless of which solution will be correct, the wetter solution suggests some precipitation will be possible on Friday. I think a compromise of the consistent Global Canadian and European models remains the best way to go. Based on this, I still think light snow is a possibility on Friday for our area, but the best chance will remain to our south. If I had to pinpoint exact totals at this time, I would forecast a dusting to a half inch. I'll have more thoughts on this again tomorrow.

Windy, Much Colder

The heaviest rain across the state is well to our east, but light showers will continue to fall through 10 a.m. The cold front passed through the county just a short time ago, but the cold air is not far behind. When this cold air arrives, temperatures will begin to drop throughout the day and should be near 41 by noon and 37 by 5 p.m. The sunshine may return late this afternoon, but this will not be able to help temperatures, especially with west northwest winds crossing a snow pack across Arkansas. Speaking of winds, they will be strong today with gusts up the 25 mph, which will only make temperatures feel even colder this afternoon. The winds will only become stronger tonight with some gusts up to 30 mph possible before midnight. Mostly clear skies and dry air favor radiational cooling, but strong winds will keep the near ground layer mixed enough to prevent temperatures from plummeting. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

The trend in the model guidance for Friday's storm system is southward. Although the pattern certainly favors a suppressed storm track, it just seems as though most models are a little too flat with the 500 mb pattern, including the European model. Many systems this year, particularly forecast by the GFS, have been too flat in their medium range solutions. The European is not typically as flat as the GFS, so this does lend some support for the GFS. However, the 00Z Canadian solution shows a slightly deeper system, which induces weak ridging downstream. This results in a low pressure track that is along the northern Gulf Coast. This solution seems to be more meteorologically sound, but it is worth noting that the Canadian is an outlier. I do think the global models will eventually shift back to the north again, but it probably won't be as far north as the Canadian.

So what does this mean for Friday's weather? There is a good chance for accumulating snows in Alabama. I still think the best chance of snow will be to our south, but even around Tuscaloosa, we still have a chance of seeing some light snow. I'll post any new thoughts I might have tomorrow morning.

Rain Arrives After Midnight

The million dollar question in today's forecast is whether or not we will see the sun. Low clouds have stubbornly persisted across the area all weekend, and it looks like they may hold tough this morning. What will likely break up the clouds will be a developing storm system in West Texas. This will cause a cold surface high to shift to our east and allow southeasterly winds to commence late this morning. Vertical mixing should gradually break up the low cloud deck after noon. However, additional clouds streaming eastward in advance of the storm system in Texas will not allow much in the way of sunshine today. Based on this scenario, highs should top out around 51. If the low clouds don't break up today, highs will stay in the upper 40s. By this evening, the low pressure across Texas will move to the east northeast and should be located in southwest Alabama around sunrise tomorrow morning. Light rain should spread into the state after midnight and become heavier after 3 a.m., but total rainfall amounts should generally be near a half inch. The rain will stick around through sunrise but should be light in intensity. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 45.

Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as modified arctic air pours into the state. I'll be keeping a close eye on a storm system at the end of the week. The pattern supports a very favorable storm track for accumulating snows in Alabama on Friday. At this time, the best threat for snow may actually be to our south, but there's no question that all the players are on the field.

Cool, Damp

Other than a few lingering showers across the eastern part of the county, all other areas are dry. These showers should exit to the east shortly, and we'll remain relatively dry for the remaining daylight hours, although, there may be some drizzle. Temperatures won't rise much today with highs topping out near 51, and temperatures may actually begin to drop slowly after noon as a colder air mass begins to move in. A tight pressure gradient will ensure a breezy day with gusts up to 25 mph. The upper level energy will rotate through tonight, so there will likely be some additional showers between 7 p.m. and midnight. Strong west northwest winds will create very window conditions after midnight with some gusts up to 30 mph. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 39.

Saturday will be cold with morning drizzle and highs in the low to mid 40s. We may finally see the sunshine return Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm up briefly Monday and Tuesday ahead our next storm system. An glancing blow from an arctic air mass arrives by Wednesday and will result in temperatures below normal for the remainder of the work week.

Wet, Cool

It will be a wet 24 hours as a surface low moves out of the Gulf of Mexico, and most communities around the area will receive over an inch of rain. Light to moderate rain will continue to fall this morning, and the rain will become heavier this evening as the strongest forcing approaches the area. Temperatures will be chilly today with an afternoon high around 48. Temperatures will actually begin to rise after midnight as the surface wave advects warmer air into the area. The temperature will actually rise to and remain steady at 54 through sunrise. The rain should begin to decrease in intensity off after 2 a.m., but it will still be a wet commute to work and school tomorrow morning.

Dry, Clouds Stream In

We should be able to sneak in one more dry day before a developing storm system in Texas ejects eastward. The fringe of this system already extends into our area with some high clouds moving through. Additional and thicker clouds are located across Louisiana and those should push into the state later this afternoon. A surface high over the Great Lakes and an organizing area of low pressure across Mexico will allow winds to veer around to the northeast. This should keep us slightly cooler today than yesterday with highs topping out near 57. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening and overnight. There is a very slight chance of see rain moving into the area before sunrise, but I think we should remain dry as the leading edge of the precipitation will be just to our south and west. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 40.

Some Clouds, Comfortable

Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning, so that means six more weeks of winter. Our weather certainly won't feel winter-like today once we get rid of the low clouds that are currently in place. This will occur later this morning and early afternoon as low-level moisture becomes scoured out by a departing shortwave trough. This will leave us in a zonal flow aloft, which should promote temperatures slightly above normal today. A few clouds will likely stick around through this afternoon, but enough peeks of sunshine should boost highs near 58. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, but it seems as though moisture will increase in the lowest 1,000 feet after midnight. This should allow skies to become increasingly cloudy. Still, lows tomorrow morning will still dip down to 31.

The groundhog doesn't have the most stellar forecast track record, but I think he may be on to something this year. The global pattern definitely supports a return to very cold air over the next couple of weeks as pressures continue to build across the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. A strong stratospheric warming event is beginning near the pole, and this will only enhance the air mass across Siberia and northwestern North America. I don't think the duration of the cold will be as long as what we saw in the first half of January, but I won't be surprised to see some record-breaking temperatures by the time February ends. Adding fuel to the fire is an active subtropical jet stream that should become even more established in the next 10-14 days. These factors argue for a cold and stormy period down the road.

Increasing Clouds, Warmer

After a cold start to begin the work week, temperatures are warming quickly into the 30s. It appears that there will be a window of opportunity this morning for temperatures to continue warming unimpeded, but clouds will be on the increase this afternoon in advance of a weak upper level shortwave. Still, it will feel much warmer as highs rebound up to 56 this afternoon. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as we go into the evening and overnight hours, and there may even be some light showers before midnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 37. Our next chance of rain arrives on Thursday, but it should exit by the weekend. The weekend looks like nice but cool.