Winter Storm Warning Issued

From flooding and severe weather yesterday to snow tonight. Indeed, the NWS in Jackson has issued a winter storm warning for our area until tomorrow morning. Some of the wording in the warning text is attention grabbing. Here is one quote:

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

I'm not as excited about this much accumulation for our area given that 5-7 inches of rain occurred yesterday. However, I'll address this and provide my forecast thoughts later this evening.

Tornado Watch Continues, Snow Tomorrow Night?

The SPC re-issued a tornado watch for Oktibbeha County and surrounding counties until 3:00 a.m. There have been some severe thunderstorm warnings issued this afternoon and evening, but most of the storms have remained below severe limits. Thunderstorms will continue to develop to our west and will gradually spread eastward overnight. There is still some severe weather threat given that elevated instability is present, but I think hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. I'm still extremely concerned about the flooding potential in and around the area. We have already picked up 4.71" of rain at MSU and another inch and a half is certainly possible overnight. Use extreme caution if you'll be driving tonight or tomorrow morning.

The next big weather story will quickly develop tomorrow night. The 18Z NAM guidance came in much wetter than previous runs, but the latest 00Z run has cut that amount in half. The GFS continues to remain consistent with a forecast around 0.15" of liquid water. I do note that the general trend of both the NAM and GFS has been to track the upper low slightly further to the west. If this does indeed verify, it will put us in close proximity to the upper low, but more importantly, it will place us in a more favorable position for uplift. I'm becoming slightly more confident that snow will occur in our area, but I'm not confident in much accumulation. The soil temperature is around 57 F and we may have almost 6" over water on the ground so this makes me somewhat skeptical on accumulations. It would take a tremendous burst of precipitation for an extended period to be able to accumulate on the ground. I'll have another update on the winter weather threat tomorrow.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the counties surrounding Oktibbeha County until 3 p.m. today. The main threat with any storms that become severe will be large hail, but damaging winds and an isolated tornado can't completely be discounted. However, I'm still not quite as bullish on the threat of severe weather for Oktibbeha County. I think the best threat will still remain to our west and south. Driving into work this morning, I experienced some minor street flooding on roads around campus thanks for a torrential downpour. Be careful as you drive to work, school, or to run errands.

Stormy End to the Week

A round of severe thunderstorms that formed along a cold front to our north overnight have drifted south, weakened, and are currently impacting Webster and Clay Counties. This line of storms is moving mostly to the east so we should stay dry until the front moves south. The front is currently approaching Northwest Mississippi and will slowly push southward throughout the day. It appears as though the rain and storms will begin after 8:30 this morning. With the early arrival of the rain, I'm expecting highs to top out around 65 today.

Some severe weather is possible with this front, but this is not the ideal setup for a big severe weather outbreak. I'm not very optimistic about severe weather for our area, but an isolated severe storm is possible today. The best chances for severe weather will be to our south and west where slightly higher instability will reside. I'm actually more concerned about heavy rain with this event as storms could train along the front throughout the day. We could receive over an inch and a half of rain so be careful on you drive home this evening and if you have any plans tonight.

The warmest temperature tomorrow will be at midnight because a cold front sweeps through the area early Saturday morning. Temperatures will quickly drop to 46 tomorrow morning. Temperatures will only fall throughout the day tomorrow and temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower 40s. Some rain is actually still possible through tomorrow morning so it will be a cold rain.

Things get really interesting late Saturday night and Sunday morning as a strong upper air low dives southeast. It appears as though there will be enough moisture present to squeeze out some light snow showers between 10 p.m. Saturday and 4 a.m. Sunday. Don't be surprised if you see patches of white on the ground when you wake up for church. I don't think this will cause big travel problems given the warm ground temperatures, but use caution if you're headed out for early services. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 40s. Warm weather quickly returns next week with highs at least in the 60s expected Tuesday through Friday.

Sun At Times, Warmer

Cloudy skies persisted again overnight and kept temperatures unseasonably warm. Low clouds will hang around through the morning, but forecast soundings show less in the way of low level moisture late this morning and afternoon as compared to yesterday. Therefore, I expect a more sunshine and warm afternoon temperatures. There is an outside shot of rain today given a relatively moist air mass, but the best upper level dynamics stay to our north. Look for afternoon highs to top out around 72 today with wind gusts over 25 mph at times. Low level moisture increases again by this evening and we should experience another cloudy and mild night. A few showers will be possible toward sunrise tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 62. A sneak peak at tomorrow's forecast looks wet, warm, and stormy.

Mostly Cloudy, Showers, and Warmer

Significant low level moisture increased overnight and caused a low stratus deck to form. This low cloud deck effectively acted like a blanket to keep temperatures in the upper 40s overnight. Forecasting the evolution of this low cloud deck will be the key to this afternoon's high temperature. Pesky upper air disturbances will pass through the state today and will only compound the forecasting challenge. These disturbances could kick off a few showers this morning, which would only keep temperatures even cooler. Judging by infrared satellite, it looks like we will stay cloudy for most of this morning. However, a small break in the low stratus deck has been created over Western Mississippi and could brush us later in the morning. If it does so, temperatures could quickly jump given warm air advection above the surface. The low clouds will likely return again this afternoon and keep temperatures steady. I'll hedge my high temperature forecast based on this scenario and forecast that we top out around 64 this afternoon. The stratus deck will persist this evening and temperatures will be around 52 tomorrow morning.

Mostly Cloudy, Slightly Warmer

Light winds and clouds kept temperatures steady around 37 for most of the night. These clouds are associated with an upper air disturbance coming from the Rockies and will persist throughout the day. There will be very little moisture for this system to work with so I'm not expecting any chance of rain for our area. Forecasting the high this afternoon is somewhat tricky because any breaks in the clouds could easily boost temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60. At the same time, if the clouds do not break, we could actually remain in the mid 50s this afternoon. Judging by infrared satellite imagery, I'll forecast that a few breaks in the clouds will allow temperatures to top out around 57 this afternoon. Clouds should hang tough tonight as well and will keep temperatures even warmer overnight. Tomorrow morning's temperature will be around 42.

Mostly Sunny, Still Cool

A Canadian cold front pushed through the state on Saturday and brough very light rainfall totals to the area. More impressive was the cold air that the front brought on Sunday and this morning. The temperature bottomed out at 25 this morning thanks to nearly ideal radiational cooling. The residual cool air will flex its muscle today and possibly tomorrow, but a change to warmer weather is in store on Wednesday.

Skies today will be mostly sunny, but a few stray high clouds may pass through at times. Highs this afternoon will hit 53. High pressures moves to our east tonight and turns our winds to the south. Another disturbance will begin to approach the area by tomorrow morning and a few clouds will likely arrive by sunrise. Therefore, tomorrow morning's low should be slightly warmer. I'll forecast a low of 31.

Sunny, Slightly Warmer

This morning's temperatures are proof to undercut guidance in ideal radiational cooling setup. We're currently beginning the day at a cold 23 degrees, but we'll actually see a large diurnal range by the end of the day. Weak warm air advection will commence later today as our upper flow flattens in advance of our next storm system coming from Alberta, Canada. Skies will remain sunny throughout today, but the high temperature forecast is a little tricky. Both the NAM and GFS do not show mixing up to 850 mb, which would support temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. I'll be a little more conservative and forecast a high of 55 today. Skies will remain clear tonight, but southerly winds will advect moisture northward and keep morning lows around 32.

Clouds will increase late Saturday morning in advance of our next storm system so try to get outdoor activities in during the morning. Temperatures will jump into the upper 50s before rain arrives Saturday afternoon.. This fast moving system will have very little moisture to work with so don't look for impressive rainfall totals. The rain should end by Saturday evening, and much colder air will follow the frontal passage. A few low clouds will hang around Sunday morning and highs will likely be in the mid to upper 40s in the afternoon. Don't fret warm weather fans -- springlike temperatures will return by the middle of next week!

Sunny, Breezy, and Colder

We thankfully dodged another severe weather bullet yesterday. I believe moisture return and weak convergence along the front prevented a bigger severe weather event from occurring in our area. Hopefully we'll be able to continue this trend through the remainder of the winter and the spring. However, I get the sense that we may be in store for some active weather with the current La Nina phase.

Temperatures are much colder behind yesterday's frontal passage and will remain that way through the remainder of the day. Sunny skies will dominate, but cold air advection will not allow much in the way of warming this afternoon. With afternoon 850 mb temperatures around -7 C, I don't think we'll make it out of the 40s today. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 49 for this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient and mixing will produce some gusty northwest winds throughout the day making the temperature feel even colder. Winds will subside tonight and with clear skies and dry air, the temperature should drop rather quickly once the sun sets. Given a good radiational cooling setup, I'll forecast a low of 26 tomorrow morning.

Much Warmer, Storms Possible

The passage of the warm front overnight really changed the feel of the air. Yesterday was quite cold with rain falling north of the warm front. A step outside this morning feels much warmer and muggy. The storms and rain we experienced overnight have moved to the east into Alabama and Georgia and weakened considerably. Fortunately, warm air advection aloft helped create a strong enough cap overnight that prevented the elevated storms from tapping the instability.

The main cold front associated with this system remains to our west so we're not completely out of the woods from rain and storms until the early afternoon hours. An isolated severe storm is not out of the question given that MLCAPE values are forecast as high as 750 J kg-1 and deep layer shear exceeds 70 knots. Greater chances for severe weather will exist to our south where better instability will be available. I believe the tornado threat for our area is minimal given that winds are aligned in the same direction virtually throughout the troposphere. However, the presence of dry air aloft and strong winds just above the surface suggests that any healthy, sustained updrafts will have the potential to produce damaging winds. Outside of the thunderstorms, winds will also be gusty this afternoon as the cold front approaches and moves through. Highs this afternoon will reach 72.

The majority of the clouds should clear by early evening, but a low stratus deck may persist through for several hours this evening before clearing early Thursday morning. With cold air advection occurring behind the front, I think we'll drop to 36 tomorrow morning.

Doug Gillham on WeatherBrains

The director of Mississippi State's Geosciences Distance Learning Program, Doug Gillham, was a guest on WeatherBrains last night. Doug did an excellent job discussing the forecast process and you can download the audio of the program at http://www.weatherbrains.com/audio/wb021609.mp3.

Cloudy, Cool, and Wet; Thunderstorms Tonight

It's another chilly morning despite the high clouds that rolled in overnight. The temperature bounced around the upper 20s most of the night, but it has since risen to 30. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the region today and warm air advection will commence aloft. However, a pesky upper air disturbance will produce considerable cloud cover and rain showers throughout the day and we likely won't see the sunshine at all. Thanks in large part to the cloud cover and rain, we will not be able to mix high enough in the atmosphere to tap the warmer air. I think the afternoon high will be a chilly 49.

Rain chances will ramp up tonight as a warm front moves northward. In fact, slightly more unstable air will be the result of the retreating front and some thunderstorms will be likely. In fact, with elevated instability aloft, some storms will be capable of producing hail. In fact, the SPC has included Starkville in a slight risk of severe tonight with the potential for hail being the main threat. This won't be a major outbreak, but an isolated severe storm is possible overnight. Temperatures will actually rise overnight as the warm front retreats northward and our warmest temperature during the day will likely occur just before midnight. By tomorrow morning, the temperature will be around 55.

***Update: As of 7:30 a.m., sleet has begun to fall in Starkville as the onset of the rain arrived early enough to support wintry weather. This will not pose a problem as temperatures have risen above freezing, and the sleet should turn to rain within the next hour as temperatures warm aloft.

Clouds at Times, Cooler

It's a cold start to the morning and something we haven't been used to the last week or so. The temperature is a chilly 30 degrees this morning, and this afternoon's high will also be much colder than anything we've felt in the last week. Clouds will be on and off at times today as an upper air disturbance passes through the state. This disturbance will also buckle the upper air flow and allow a weak trough to dig in over the Southeast, which will produce cooler temperatures above the surface. Due to these factors, I'll forecast a high of 54 this afternoon.

This cool pattern won't last long because our next storm system will be organizing off the coast of Southern California. Disturbances will emanate out of this main trough during the next 24-36 hours and one of those will approach the state again by tonight. Clouds should increase in response to this and will likely keep temperatures up a few more degrees than this morning. I think the low tomorrow morning will be 34.

Increasing Clouds, RainThis Afternoon

It's a chilly start to the morning as temperatures dropped into the upper 30s before clouds arrived earlier this morning. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken throughout the day as a warm front moves northward today. Forecasting the temperature is a bit of a challenge with cloud cover and timing the rain. It looks like rain chances ramp up early this afternoon and this evening. We should be able to get into the 60s before the rain arrives, and in fact, I'll forecast a high of 63 today. The rain may last through the evening but should exit to the east by early Saturday morning. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures fairly mild tonight with a low of 51 expected tomorrow morning.

Clouds will hold tough for much of Saturday and a few sprinkles are possible early in the morning. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday morning, but highs will be similar to today with lower 60s expected. A weak disturbance will ride along the front to our south on Saturday night and Sunday morning and could cause some light rain. I think the better chance of rain will remain to our south. Temperatures look to cool off a little Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 expected. Temperatures next week look slightly cooler than this week, and it appears that any bitter cold will remain out of the picture. In the long term, we could be in store for even warmer weather the following work week before a big storm moves through.

Morning Storms, Afternoon Clearing

I always say there's no easier way to bust a forecast than to not accurately forecast cloud cover. That was the case yesterday as clouds kept the high temperature from reaching its potential. On the other hand, clouds and gusty south winds have caused the muggy feeling temperatures this morning. A small cluster of showers is currently moving through the area, but the main line of storms associated with the cold front is currently located over Western Mississippi. This line has significantly weakened overnight as it has encountered a more stable air mass. However, as the morning progresses, this line could begin to strengthen some as it encounters slightly more unstable air. I don't think severe weather is a major concern, but these storms could easily transport strong boundary layer winds to the surface. An isolated tornado remains possible, but the better chance for that will probably be in Alabama. I look for the line of storms to move through by 11 a.m. today, and then we will clear out by mid afternoon.

The temperature is tricky to forecast because any break in the clouds this morning could quickly cause the temperature to jump. Judging by satellite imagery, we could see brief glimpses of the sun this morning before the storms move through so I'll forecast a high of 68. Skies will be clear tonight and we should be much colder with the frontal passage. We will drop to 41 by tomorrow morning.

**Sad situation last night as a large, strong tornado plowed through the town of Lone Grove, Oklahoma. The death toll has risen to 15 and could be higher as officials assess the damage.

Mostly Cloudy, Warm, & Breezy

It's a mild start to the morning as clouds, strong south winds, and moisture advection kept the temperature around 57 for several hours. Showers are lingering across Arkansas in association with a washed out cold front. These showers should stay to our north and west today, and a cap should keep any other showers at bay this afternoon. Simply put, I'm not real keen on any rain chances for the daytime hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy today but the low clouds may break up some this afternoon as mixing occurs. Speaking of mixing, strong southerly winds will dominate again today and wind gusts could exceed 25 mph this afternoon. I think this will be our warmest day with highs topping out around 74.

Our next cold front will take shape across Texas later today and will trigger some big time storms to our west later this evening. The front and storms should race eastward, but I don't think we will see any rain through sunrise tomorrow morning. Clouds, strong winds (potentially gusting over 35 mph!), and moisture advection will keep the low temperature around 61.


The SPC is forecasting a slight risk of severe weather for our area tomorrow. I have no disagreements at this point, especially with them forecasting the greatest risk to our north. Let me say that model guidance is trending slightly higher with instability for our area, and I will definitely keep a close eye on future model runs to see if this trend continues.

New Severe Weather Thoughts

The first storm system this week is moving well to our north and west. A weakening line of showers associated with the cold front remains over Central Arkansas and some of these may hold together to impact Northwest Mississippi later tonight. The cold front will dissipate before it reaches our area, but some showers are possible tomorrow in association with this dying front. Tomorrow will be another warm day with highs in the 70s area wide. Gusty southerly winds will continue to pump more Gulf moisture into the region and this should win the battle against mixing. Therefore, dew points should rise into the 50s tomorrow and will set the stage for a chance of storms with the second cold front due in here on Wednesday.

Our main system of interest has moved into Southern California this evening and caused some showers north of the Los Angeles area. This system will quickly eject out into the Southern Plains tomorrow and potentially cause a severe weather outbreak for Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma.

TIMING
The Canadian was the outlier a few days ago, but seemingly every model has trended toward its solution of a faster moving system. Almost every available model run suggests the cold front will exit the area by early Wednesday afternoon.

TRACK
There is reasonable agreement in the models up to 24 hours, but considerable uncertainty exists at 48 hours. Some models place the surface low in Southern Missouri while others are further north and east. Both the GFS and Canadian ensembles suggest the surface low is located in Illinois by Wednesday morning, but uncertainty even exists in all of the members. If this does play out, it will significantly lessen the chance of severe weather for our area. However, if the operational run of the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, WRF, and UKMET are correct, there will be a chance of severe weather in our area since they all show the low pressure over Southern Missouri by Wednesday morning. I've always preferred the deeper solution, and I still am leaning this way, especially given the consistency of the very reliable ECMWF.

Putting these two factors together suggests that severe weather is a possibility late Wednesday morning. With the timing of the front coming through in the late morning, this will likely decrease the amount of destabilization that can occur. In fact, MLCAPE values of only 200-400 J kg-1 are forecast by the NAM as the front moves through. However, recent cool season severe weather events have shown it doesn't take a lot of instability to cause some problems.

THREATS
Strong dynamic forcing will result in the development of a squall line late tomorrow night in Oklahoma and Texas that will begin to accelerate eastward. This line of storms should be located just west of the Mississippi River by sunrise Wednesday. As the dynamics lift to the north and east and the instability wanes Wednesday morning, look for the line to weak as it approaches the I-55 corridor and the Oktibbeha County area. Still, given a highly sheared environment and some lingering instability, a chance of severe weather certainly exists for our area. Making the forecast slight more interesting is the presence of very dry air and strong winds just above the surface. If downdrafts associated with the squall line can tap the dry air, it should be relatively easy to transport the stronger winds to the surface. I feel that a low end threat for damaging winds is the main threat with this system, but an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled out late Wednesday morning. With most of the CAPE confined to the lower levels, this could combine with moderate 0-1 km SRH (>150 m^2 s^-2) to produce low level rotation in the strongest storms. It was a little over a month ago that a similar setup produced a couple of tornadoes in Southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama.

The limiting factor with this system appears to be the moisture return. If dew points were several degrees higher, we could be dealing with a much more dangerous situation. Fortunately, the arctic air intrusions over the last month will likely prevent a major outbreak for our region this time.

To recap, look for a line of thunderstorms to impact our area late Wednesday morning. Severe weather is a possibility, but the best chances for severe weather will likely be to our north and west. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado is not out of the question. Rain should exit the area by early Wednesday afternoon and temperatures won't cool much behind the front given the Pacific origin of the incoming air mass.

Mix of Clouds and Sun, Continued Warm

Spring like conditions dominated the weather over the weekend with highs in the 70s Saturday and Sunday. It doesn't appear that our string of 70 degree days will end today either. Skies will remain cloudy through much of this morning but will give way to a few hours of afternoon sunshine. Southerly winds associated with a surface high pressure center to our east and a cold front to our west will generate some gusty winds at times this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will top out around 72.

The cold front I mentioned above will inch its way toward the state overnight. Ahead of this, clouds and moisture will be on the increase which will keep us mild overnight. A chance of rain can't completely be ruled out, but I think the better chances will remain across Western Mississippi. The low tomorrow morning will be a muggy feeling 56.

Severe Weather Looming?

I thought I would put together some thoughts for next week's storm system that is scheduled to arrive here on Wednesday. Any time there are several consecutive days with temperatures in the 60s and 70s in February usually means there will be a price to pay at some point. That price to pay looks to be in the form of severe weather by the middle part of next week.

A +PNA pattern for much of January and frequent polar vortex intrusions lead to a colder than normal month. We've quickly reversed the pattern with a trough over the west and a ridge over the eastern half of the country. This pattern has brought stormy weather to California and the Desert Southwest and a mid-winter thaw to areas east of the Rockies.

The first system of note is currently off the coast of California and is delivering much needed rain to parts of Central and Southern California. Most models are fairly consistent with ejecting this system into the Southern Plains on Monday. A sustained 48-72 hours of southerly winds should advect low to mid 50s dew points northward in advance of this first system. Despite a long duration of return flow, the Gulf of Mexico is completely scoured of any true maritime tropical air. In fact, you would have to travel into the Northwest Caribbean just to find 70 degree dew points and almost to South America to find mid 70 dew points! Due to these factors, I'm not expecting a widespread severe weather threat with this first system. However, the SPC is forecasting a slight risk of severe weather across West Texas on Sunday, but this looks marginal at best to me. With strong dynamic and linear forcing, a weak squall line may develop and pose a low-end threat for gusty winds. The good news is that this system should provide many parched areas in the Great Plains with some much needed rainfall.

The big storm system I am concerned about is currently impacting shipping interests only around 160 degrees West longitude. After the passage of the first system, all eyes will quickly turn back to the west as another powerful storm system will be slamming onshore of California and the West Coast early next week. In advance of these two storm systems, our area should experience a southerly wind component from now until next Wednesday when our storm system moves through. Unfortunately, this will allow moisture to gradually increase for several days. The GFS and NAM both insist that lower 50 dew points arrive into our area by Sunday evening. I think this is likely too aggressive as we probably won't see lower 50 dew points until Monday.

By Tuesday morning, the GFS, NAM, NOGAPS, JMA, and ECMWF are all in reasonably good agreement with the timing and position of the trough. The Canadian is slightly faster but still agrees with the placement of a trough in the Desert Southwest. By Wednesday morning, however, model divergence begins to rear its ugly head. The Canadian is the fastest and furthest north of all the models and seems to be an outlier at this point. The JMA is the deepest and slowest of the solutions with the trough axis lagging back in Southwest Texas. The ECMWF and GFS are somewhat similar, but the GFS seems slightly faster. The NOGAPS is a compromise between the faster and weaker CMC and the slower and deeper ECMWF and GFS. The Canadian Ensembles are somewhat spread with the exact trough axis, but they argue for a slower and deeper solution.

While there is some disagreement between the models with the exact timing and strength of the system, I feel very confident that our area will experience severe weather with this storm system. I prefer the deeper and slower solution at this time and feel that the severe weather threat may be late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The GFS, ECMWF, and JMA all show an almost classic synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak in our area for Wednesday. A powerful, negatively titled trough will move just to our north on Wednesday afternoon and evening accompanied by +90 knot winds at 500 mb. At the same time, the right rear quadrant of a +120 knot jet streak will be in place over our area. A very strong low level jet (+55 kts) will advect moisture northward rapidly through the day on Wednesday.

These impressive dynamics will initiate the development of a surface cyclone across Western Arkansas that will quickly deepen as it moves to the north and east. In advance of the cold front and low pressure center, a warm, moist air mass will be present across the lower Mississippi River valley. Just how moist the air mass will be remains in doubt due to the quality of maritime tropical air. At this point, I feel that lower 60s dew points will be advected into our area ahead of the cold front, which should allow for enough instability to support severe weather. Getting specific about the mesoscale environment is futile at this point, but the environment should at least be supportive of severe weather.


Let me go ahead and say that I strongly disagree with the SPC's 4-8 Day Outlook at this time, but I feel reasonably confident that they will outlook areas for severe weather on Wednesday in upcoming outlooks. Despite this, I've got several concerns and questions at this point that will be answered with time. Here are some of them:
1. If greater moisture return is realized, we could be in store for a much worse severe weather event. This would effectively increase the instability and lead to stronger and potentially supercellular storms.
2. If the track of the low is further north, this may tend to lessen the chances of a major outbreak. On the other hand, if the track of the low shifts slightly southward, this will increase the chances of a major outbreak. If the track shifts significantly southward, it will lessen our chances for severe weather.
3. If the timing of the system speeds up and pushes the cold front through during the peak heating of the afternoon, instability would be slightly higher. If the main threat of storms holds off until the nighttime hours, there will be slightly less instability available.
4. These dynamic, strongly forced, and negatively titled systems tend to produce more squall lines than discrete supercells. The reason for this is because most of the winds are parallel to the front rather than perpendicular. The parallel nature of the mean flow tends to produce more linear storms rather than discrete supercells. However, this system is somewhat strange in that the main storm system tilts to the southwest and the lower levels do not exhibit negatively tilted trough characteristics. In fact, the 850 mb chart argues for a positive trough tilt, and this pattern allows the mean wind to be more perpendicular to the front. This could increase the chances of more isolated storms if this pattern continues with successive models runs.
5. There's no easier way to blow a cool season Southeast severe weather event than to not properly forecast the stratus deck. As with just about every severe weather event in our area, the extent and strength of the low clouds will play a key role with this event. If clouds can break up and allow for more insolation, instability levels will be higher. A persistent stratus deck will severely limit instability and likely lead to a lesser severe weather threat.
6. Capping issues associated with the southwesterly flow may limit storms until strong forcing arrives. However, it may also allow energy to build throughout the day and be released when the main dynamics arrive. This is most likely to be a greater concern in Southwest Mississippi.

We're still several days away from this event, but I feel confident in the threat for severe weather for our area. Forecasting the mode of severe weather and the associated threats is extremely difficult, if not impossible at this point. Time will increase my confidence with this aspect of the storm system, especially by watching the track of the system and the moisture return over the next few days. Keep an eye on the blog early next week as I'll update my thoughts.

Sunny and Mild!

Southerly winds kept the temperature around 30 for several hours overnight. We'll warm up significantly this afternoon as our area will be influenced by an upper level ridge and area of high pressure well to the east. With sunny skies and warm temperatures aloft, I think we can manage to top out around 65 this afternoon. Making it feel even more springlike, southerly winds could be gusty at times this afternoon. Skies will be clear this evening, but a few low clouds may develop after midnight as low level moisture increases. With southerly winds staying up through the night, we may only drop to 42 by the morning.

This weekend will be perfect for anything outdoors related so get out and try to enjoy the weather. We will have a few low clouds tomorrow morning, but afternoon sun should warm us up in the upper 60s to near 70. There will be a few more clouds throughout the day on Sunday with highs around 70. Highs will remain very pleasant through the middle part of next week when our next cold front approaches the area.

Sunny, Warming Begins

I never would have guessed yesterday morning would have been colder than this morning, but that's certainly what's happened. With clear skies and calm winds, the temperature only managed to drop to 19 this morning. The highly amplified trough that dominated our weather yesterday will relinquish its grip some today as it pushes off to the east. Warm air advection will commence aloft, but we're still going to be chilly today since the temperature is starting so low. Skies will be sunny again today and we should top out around 48 this afternoon.

Winds will switch around to a southerly direction today and will increase our moisture. Therefore, tonight's temperature should be much warmer than the previous two mornings even with clear skies and light winds. I'll forecast a low of 29 tomorrow morning. A ridge builds over us tomorrow and will lead to an extended period of warmth for several days with highs mainly in the 60s and 70s!

Sunny But Cold

It's a bitter start to the day so far as winds remained lighter than expected overnight and allowed the temperature to drop to 18. Today's weather will be summed up as one of my least favorite weather days of the year -- sunny and cold. Despite abundant sunshine, strong cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage will dictate the high temperature today. I think we'll top out near 38 later this afternoon. To add insult to injury, winds will remain gusty at times today. Granted, winds should be much weaker than yesterday, but wind gusts could exceed 15 mph, making the temperature feel even colder. An ideal radiational cooling setup will be in place tonight for temperatures to plummet. Light winds, clear skies, and dry air will likely allow the temperature to drop to 16 overnight. I wouldn't be surprised if rural, low lying areas are a degree or two lower than that. Needless to say, make sure you bundle up today on your way to work or school!

A Few Clouds, Still Cool

Dry air, light winds, and clear skies allowed the temperature to drop to 27 this morning. That's fairly impressive given that we had almost an inch of rain yesterday. Clouds will quickly increase this morning as an upper level disturbance and cold front moves in our direction. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at times today and this will keep temperatures on the cool side. The high should be able to hit 50 this afternoon. Breezy conditions will be felt again today as we have strong pressure gradient in place. Wind gusts could exceed 25 mph at times today so hold onto those hats!

Polar air will accompany the frontal passage late this afternoon and we're looking at a chilly evening. Skies should be clear tonight and dew points will be in the low teens. However, models insist that winds will be strong enough to keep temperatures from plummeting. I'm still going to undercut guidance since we got colder than expected this morning. I think it will be 20 in the morning, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the temperature in the upper teens.

Cooler, Afternoon Clearing Possible

After a fantastic weekend weather wise, it's unfortunate the new work week will begin on a rather gloomy note. A good soaking rain fell last night along and behind a cold front. The rain has exited our area and we should be dry for the remainder of the day. The temperature is currently 48, but this should drop for a couple of more hours before steadying off in the lower 40s. However, it will be a slow climb upwards this morning with cloudy skies and cold air advection in place. Clearing looks possible this afternoon and I think we can manage to hit 51 later this afternoon. Skies will be clear overnight, but with plenty of soil moisture, temperatures will have a tough time dropping much below freezing. I think the temperature in the morning will be 30. Temperatures still look cool for most of this week, but the end of the week and the weekend should be nice with mild temperatures.