Scattered Storms, Continued Warm

It seems like our weather pattern the last couple of days has been the same song and dance with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. Cloud cover again kept temperatures rather muggy overnight at 64 degrees. Infrared satellite shows these clouds are moving east, but a large cloud shield associated with overnight convection in Texas is approaching the Mississippi River. All of the cloud cover and precipitation is associated with an upper air disturbance that will be moving our way this afternoon. The strongest energy associated with the disturbance will pass to our north, but I am buying into the fact that more cloud cover will be around today than the last couple of days. It appears as though that skies will be partly cloudy for much of the morning with increasing clouds by noon, but I still think we should be able to hit 81 this afternoon. With the strong upper air disturbance passing by, I feel that there will likely be greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms today. That's not to say everyone will get wet, but there should be a higher potential to get wet today than any day so far this week. Clouds should stick around tonight and there will be a lingering small chance of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. It will be muggy again in the morning with a low of 63.

Some Clouds, Isolated Showers

The strong ridge that dominated our weather for the last several days has slid off to the east and a cutoff low in the Pacific Northwest has allowed our upper air pattern to flatten out. This is enabling small upper level disturbances within the flow to move toward our area. What does this mean for our weather? More cloud cover and the chance for rain. If you look at the sky today and notice some high clouds, you may find it interesting to know that these are blow off clouds from strong thunderstorms over Oklahoma. Highs this afternoon will be very similar to the last couple of days and we should top out around 83. Once again, there is a small chance for rain today, but most communities will remain dry. Rain chances will be very slim again overnight and I think the best chance of rain will remain to our north. Still, clouds will likely be around for much of the night, which should keep the morning low near 62.

Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Showers

Cloud cover and southerly winds kept temperatures in the low to mid 60s overnight. We'll likely see a lot more in the way of cloud cover today and that will keep temperatures cooler than the last several days but still warm. In the upper levels, a disturbance will be moving through the state today but it will be weakening. Still, this may provide enough lift to warrant a very small chance of an isolated shower or two this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will likely be around 80. Clouds will remain in place overnight and there will still be a very small chance of a shower. It will be very muggy again overnight with the temperature tomorrow morning likely around 64. Rainfall deficit relief will be on the way in the long term as we will transition to a wetter pattern by the weekend.

Some Clouds But Warm

Although it was a tad warm, it was a beautiful weekend in the weather department and that's not likely to change today. As much rain as it seems like we've had this year (19.21" at MSU), the current pattern has placed us in a rainfall deficit with each dry day that passes. I'm optimistic we may be able to get some help down the road, especially with the strong MJO currently occurring across the Western Pacific. In the meantime, rain chances will finally increase tomorrow, but we'll be high and dry once again today as we'll remain on the western periphery of an upper level ridge. Skies will be partly cloudy, but highs should be able to top out around 85 this afternoon. Wind gusts could also exceed 20 mph this afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase this evening as the ridge begins to break down. The chance for rain is not zero tonight, but I think any showers will remain to our north and west. The low tomorrow morning will be 62.

Mostly Sunny, Hot

A summer-like ridge was in place yesterday and allowed for temperatures to jump into the upper 80s for most locations. The main ridge axis will be displaced slightly to the east today, but we'll still see highs very similar to yesterday. Being on the western side of the ridge is always tricky, especially in regards to cloud cover and convection since there is some slightly cooler air aloft. The main upper air disturbances will remain to our west so we should stay dry, but we could see a stray cloud or two throughout the day. Still, temperatures will still be able to top out near 87 this afternoon. Winds may also gust up to 20 mph mainly this afternoon. Tonight's forecast is tricky because it depends on how a convective complex in Texas evolves. If the complex is large, it's possible it could sling some high cirrus clouds our way, which would keep lows quite mild. At this point, I think the main cloud cover would stay just to our west, but southerly winds may keep temperatures higher than guidance overnight so I'll forecast a low of 61.

Some Clouds, Warm

I"ll keep this post short and sweet today. Temperatures are starting the day near 60 and we'll warm up appreciably this afternoon. A few blow off clouds from a convective complex to our northwest may move through the area late this morning and afternoon and limit full heating potential. Still, we'll likely top out around 84 this afternoon. With southerly winds staying up overnight, the low temperature tomorrow will be near 62.

Warming Trend Begins

It's quite a chilly start to the day as temperatures are currently running in the low to mid 40s across the area. This morning's cool temperature can be directly attributed to the lingering effects of the deep Eastern U.S. trough. The trough is slowly moving eastward as a very high amplitude ridge will be building in its wake. We'll be in between these two upper level features today so that means we'll be warmer than the last two days. Skies should remain mostly sunny for most of the morning hours, but a few passing clouds may arrive just before noon and could linger into the early afternoon. Despite these clouds, I think we'll still top our near 78 this afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear tonight and southerly winds should be strong enough to keep temperatures around 55 tomorrow morning. The warm string begins in earnest tomorrow with highs in the 80s expected through at least Sunday. There will likely be a day or two with highs of at least 85 so it's possible you might be turning on the air conditioner for the first time this year.

Some Clouds, Comfortable

Cloud cover associated with a digging upper air trough to our northeast kept temperatures in the lower 50s overnight. Skies are currently clear so it's possible we may start the day a bit cooler than current readings. The main brunt of the cold air associated with the trough will remain well to our north and east so we won't experience much of a cool down during the day. Passing clouds associated with upper air impulses and a cold front, however, will tend to keep temperatures from warming up too much this afternoon, but we'll still top out around 70. With a tightened pressure gradient in place, winds may also gust up to 25 mph at times this afternoon, especially during prolonged periods of sunshine. A cold front will push through this evening and will usher in a shot of cooler air overnight. I don't think the front will have enough moisture for any precipitation, but some lingering cloud cover will likely remain in place through early Wednesday morning. However, a brief windows does exist for clear skies and light winds to allow temperatures to drop like a rock tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be around 44 tomorrow morning. The big warm up is still in the works beginning tomorrow and lasting at least through the weekend. I still think we hit the mid 80s once or possibly twice by then.

Pleasant Spring Day

After a strong storm system moved through the area overnight, beautiful weather conditions will be left in its wake. Skies cleared overnight and temperatures will generally start the day in the lower to middle 50s. While a trough will be deepening to our north that will cause weak cold air advection, a high April sun angle will still push temperatures near normal this afternoon. Skies should be mostly sunny this afternoon as temperatures will likely top out near 70. The upper trough will continue deepening tonight and will send another shot of cold air toward the region. An upper air disturbance associated with the trough should squeeze out enough moisture for sprinkles and clouds to develop just before midnight. The clouds will keep temperatures near 50 tomorrow morning. Enjoy the cool weather for the next couple of days because the big story this week will be the expanding warmth. The entire eastern half of the country should experience above normal temperatures by the end of the week, and we may even top out in the mid 80s at some point in the next 7 days!

Partly Cloudy, Warm

A few clouds have kept temperatures around 54 this morning. A few high clouds will pass by at times today, but they should do very little to hold temperatures down. A cutoff low moving out of the Rockies has amplified a ridge across our region, which will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s this afternoon. I think we'll top out around 77. By this evening, clouds will be on the increase, especially after midnight, and this will keep temperatures mild overnight. The low tomorrow morning will be near 56.

If you have any plans for the first night of Super Bulldog Weekend, the weather will be great with temperatures in the 60s. Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies and there could be some showers in the afternoon. It might be a good idea to carry a poncho or an umbrella to the baseball game and football scrimmage. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s. If you're headed to the Old Main Music Fest, there is a chance for some light rain, but I think the concert should be mostly dry. Sunday looks really wet as a strong cold front approaches the state. I think the heaviest rain will begin just before sunrise and will last through the early afternoon hours. Highs will be in the lower 70s on Sunday. Whether the baseball game on Sunday is played or not is questionable, but the game could be pushed to 4 p.m. and likely be played if the field drains. Get out and try to enjoy the weekend to its fullest tonight and Saturday morning. A deepening upper air trough over the Eastern U.S. early next week will glance the area so highs will be in the 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Some Clouds, Mild

It's another chilly start to the morning as temperatures dropped into the lower 40s overnight. We should rebound nicely this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds across the Mid South. The only complicating factor appears to be the presence of cloud cover associated with an upper level disturbance within the ridge. We should have a mix of sun and clouds today and that will keep temperatures from really warming. Still, I think we should be able to near 70 this afternoon. An area of high pressure located across the Ohio Valley will slide eastward tonight and allow winds to wind to the southeast. A few clouds may still be present also and this will keep temperatures much warmer overnight. The low tomorrow morning will be near 52.

The weekend continues to look wet as a cutoff low gradually moves toward the area. These are notorious rain producers and that's likely what we'll deal with over the weekend. Without boring you with the details of the various model solutions and ensembles, here are my thoughts for the weekend:
-Super Bulldog Weekend activities on Friday should go off without a hitch. There will likely be some clouds with temperatures in the 70s.
-Saturday is the tough forecast, but at this point, I think there may be some rain Saturday afternoon. However, I don't think it will be heavy enough to impact the baseball or football scrimmage. If you are planning on attending these events, you might want to carry a poncho or umbrella. I think the outdoor concert will mostly be dry, but there will be a slight chance for a shower.
-Sunday looks like the wettest day and I would be surprised if the baseball game is played. Over 2" of rain could fall as the main brunt of this system moves through on Sunday.

Sunny, Rather Cool

It was certainly evident that a large variation in temperatures exists this morning where skies were clear and where clouds were present. Clear skies and light winds allowed the temperature to plummet overnight and temperatures are currently running around 37 at the GTR Airport! However, low clouds held tough 10 miles down the road at Columbus and actually kept temperatures in the lower 40s overnight.We should see a more uniform distribution of temperatures this afternoon and most areas should be sunny; there may be a few high clouds this afternoon but sunshine should be predominant. Our upper air pattern will still be influenced by the pesky cutoff low located in West Virginia. What this means for us is another cooler than normal day but not as cold as yesterday. Highs this afternoon should top out around 66. Skies will be clear again overnight with light winds so it should be another cold evening. Instead of 30s tomorrow morning, I think the low temperature will be 43. The warming trend begins tomorrow and our next shot of rain won't come until this weekend.

Mostly Cloudy, Cooler

Despite low clouds associated with an upper level disturbance, cold air advection was strong enough to drop temperatures into the upper 40s this morning. These low clouds may be a nuisance for much of the day and will keep temperatures much cooler than normal. The culprit of these clouds is an upper air disturbance located over the Ohio River Valley that has essentially become cut off from the main flow. This upper low is meandering very slowly, but it should lift far enough northeast by tonight for skies to clear. With mostly cloudy skies this afternoon and cold air advection, I think the high will only top out around 61. Winds may be a bit breezy this afternoon with an increased pressure gradient. Clouds should clear out tonight for a short time, but an increase in low level moisture early tomorrow morning may lead to the development of more low clouds. With this in mind, I'll forecast a low of 42 tomorrow morning.

Partly Cloudy, Warm, Storms Possible This Afternoon

The pleasant weather for the weekend ended a little early yesterday afternoon as a large swath of rain dumped up to an inch of rain on some parts of the county. The storm system responsible for yesterday's rain has yet to fully clear the area. Therefore, there is a lingering chance that we could deal with a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon. If any storms do develop this afternoon, they will have the potential to produce hail and gusty winds. Low clouds will likely be around through 9:00 a.m., but forecast soundings indicate that these clouds should break up and give way to some sunshine later this morning and early afternoon. With this in mind, I'll forecast a high of 79 this afternoon. If the low clouds do persist into the afternoon, highs will be several degrees cooler. The main upper air system will pass through tonight and will keep low clouds around through the overnight hours. With decent cold air advection, we should be able to drop to 44 tomorrow morning.

Overnight Graphical Forecast

Warm, Storms This Afternoon

Somewhat tricky forecast today as a cold front is approaching the Mississippi River. Ahead of this front, a few low clouds currently blanket the warm sector, but enough sunshine should boost temperatures into the upper 70s early this afternoon. In fact, I think we top out around 77. This will allow the air mass to be unstable enough for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front this afternoon. Given the amount of instability that should be in place, a few storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. A secondary issue will be the strong gradient winds that will accompany the front this afternoon. Wind gusts could exceed 35 mph around mid-afternoon! The front will exit the area late this afternoon, but low clouds may hang around through much of the evening before skies clear after midnight. With this in mind, temperatures tomorrow morning will be near 46.

The weather for the weekend looks great. Saturday will be cooler with partly cloudy skies around for much of the day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. Easter Sunday looks great with a few clouds around and highs in the lower 70s. A chance of rain and storms will return late Sunday night. Have a great Easter!

Tornado Watch Issued

The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Oktibbeha County and surrounding counties until 9:00 a.m. CT. I'm not overly concerned about a tornado threat for our area given that the storms to our west are rooted above the boundary layer, but severe thunderstorm warnings may be required for Clay, Lowndes, and Monroe Counties within the next hour or so. Damaging winds and small hail will be the primary threats associated with these storms, but heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany the storms as they move through the area. As the storms move through Oktibbeha County by 3:30, strong winds and lightning may occur, but we should not have to deal with any severe weather.

Southern Plains Wild Fires

Quite a dangerous situation has developed this afternoon and evening across drought-stricken areas of Oklahoma and Northern Texas. Exacerbating the situation today was a strong low pressure system and associated dry line. Behind the dry line, dew points dropped into the teens and temperatures soared into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The combination of high temperatures and very dry air was only aided by the strong winds associated with an area of low pressure in Oklahoma. Winds gusted over 50 mph at some locations west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon and this blew a lot of smoke over 100 miles downstream!

Smoke plumes were detected by Dallas/Fort Worth radar. Note the higher reflectivity in Palo Pinto County.


Smoke plumes can also be seen by the radar at Oklahoma City.


Visible satellite imagery depicts the smoke plumes and the dry line this afternoon.


The Shortwave IR 3.9 um channel shows the individual fires as black specks. [Thanks to Rob Hart and Michael Carter]

Partly Cloudy, Warm; Rain Possible Overnight?

Moisture advection and high level clouds kept temperatures in the mid 50s overnight. The clouds will continue to hang around for most of the day, but there should be enough sun to warm temperatures up nicely this afternoon. In fact, the high this afternoon looks to top out around 78. We are in between an area of high pressure to our east and a developing low pressure to our west. These will combine to increase moisture through the day and to produce wind gusts over 25 mph at times. Hold on to those hats once again this afternoon!

Along with an advancing frontal system, a deepening upper air trough will eject into the Central Plains later tonight. These two features will provide enough lift for a round of showers and thunderstorms to develop to our west later this afternoon. The question is will we be affected by the rain overnight? My best guess is that, yes, we will have enough lift and moisture in place to warrant a chance of rain and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. The temperature in the morning will be near 61.

Sunny, Warmer, & Breezy

It's another cold start to the day as light and even calm winds have allowed temperatures to drop just above freezing around the area this morning. Our upper air pattern is still being influenced by the lingering Eastern U.S. trough, but return flow and strong warm air advection should boost temperatures back to normal this afternoon. In fact, sunny skies will allow temperatures to top out near 71. Strong boundary layer winds will be mixed down to the surface this afternoon and winds could gust over 25 mph at times. By this evening, an upper ridge will be in place over the area and warm air advection will continue just above the surface. Models are also hinting at the development of some low stratus clouds after midnight tonight. With this in mind, I'll forecast a morning low of 48 tomorrow morning. An active weather pattern will return tomorrow and with some storms possible over the next several days. Severe weather may be involved by the end of the weekend since moisture should be sufficiently recharged by then.

Mostly Sunny, Unseasonably Cool

Despite mostly clear skies and dry air overnight, temperatures generally stayed above freezing thanks to a continuous light wind. Still, we're starting off the morning on a very cold note and that will hold true for this afternoon as well. The deep upper air trough responsible for this chilly weather pattern remains entrenched across the Southeast, but this will begin to slide off to the east this afternoon. A few low clouds may skirt across the area early this morning, but skies should be sunny for a large majority of the day. I think the high this afternoon will top out around 55, which will be about 17 degrees below normal. A tight pressure gradient will also allow for wind gusts to exceed 20 mph at times today so it will feel slightly cooler than the actual air temperature. By this evening, the aforementioned trough will slide to the east and a surface high pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will also gradually slide eastward. This will result in a southerly component to the wind by tonight and should keep temperatures around 35 tomorrow morning. A nice warming trend begins tomorrow and our next shot of rain will arrive Thursday night and Friday.

Cloudy, Cold, & Blustery

It was almost impossible to beat the weather over the weekend with temperatures in the 70s. I hope you were able to get outside and enjoy it because you might not enjoy the weather today and tomorrow. A strong cold front passed through the area yesterday and a deepening upper level trough will ensure that the next couple of days will be the coldest we've experienced in quite some time. A few sprinkles are possible today as the upper air trough deepens today. A pesky low stratus deck will also persist through the entire day and this will only contribute to keeping temperatures on the chilly side. A strong pressure gradient will only compound matters by keeping winds gusty through the afternoon. In fact, winds could gust over 25 mph at times today, which will make temperatures feel like they are only in the 40s all day. I think our high will make it up to 50 later this afternoon. Low clouds will persist tonight and this will prevent us from reaching our true potential, but lows will still be much colder than we've experienced lately. Look for temperatures in the morning to be near 32. It might be a good idea to bring any plants inside tonight since temperatures will be near freezing.

Hefty Storms This Afternoon, Warm

It's a muggy, foggy start to the morning with temperatures in the lower 60s. Upper air charts this morning show an active subtropical jet that has sparked off a round of convection that extends from the northern Gulf of Mexico to North Carolina. Another area of convection is currently approaching Northwest Louisiana and is associated with the powerful storm system that will arrive in here this afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure is located in Southern Oklahoma with a trailing cold front that is approaching the I-35 corridor in Texas. This surface low is forecast to be in Western Tennessee this evening with the cold front along the Alabama/Mississippi border. This means that the best chance for rain and storms for our area will be before 8 p.m. I think we stay dry through the morning and early afternoon, but the chance for storms will increase after 2 p.m. With the expected instability and shear in place, these storms will likely be severe in our area. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible. I'll post more on the severe weather threat in a little while, but make sure you are close to a source of weather information later today.

Judging by infrared satellite imagery and forecast soundings, I think it's possible there may be some breaks in the clouds at times this morning and possibly early afternoon. I would be surprised to see full sunshine so I'll forecast a high of 75. However, if there is more sunshine, we could actually approach 80 degrees. On the other hand, if the fog has a tough time dissipating and low clouds hang tough, we'll probably be near 70 today. Rain and storms should exit the area by 7 p.m. as the cold front sweeps through, but low clouds will return late tonight as the upper air disturbance passes through. The upper air low could even squeeze out a few light showers after midnight. Tomorrow morning's low will be 47.

Cold Snap Early Next Week

I notice the official high forecast for Starkville next Tuesday is 67, which would be about 5 degrees below normal. I would actually be shocked if the high is that warm next week. A deep trough over much of Eastern Asia the last two days would teleconnect well with the placement of a deep trough over the eastern third of the country by Tuesday and Wednesday. This is hinted at by all models and ensembles to varying degrees with the GFS exhibiting its typical cold bias. It has 850 mb temperatures of -10 C in Starkville Tuesday morning. Brrr! The ECMWF is less agressive than the GFS and delays the cold shot to the middle of next week. The Japanese is in line with the European with the strength of the cold air but is in line with the GFS' timing. The Canadian and NOGAPS are weaker with the trough, but 850 mb temps of -5 C would support temperatures well below normal. The take home message is that next Tuesday appears to be a much cooler day than currently forecast by the NWS. I wouldn't be surprised to see highs nudged down even further over the next few days. Don't put away those winter coats just yet!

Sunny, Pleasant

It's going to be very difficult to beat today in terms of weather. Today is my definition of perfect weather -- a cool morning and a mild afternoon. We'll be sandwiched between storm systems to our east and west, but skies will remain sunny this afternoon. An area of high pressure across Tennessee will slowly kick off to the east today and southeasterly winds should return this afternoon and provide for mild temperatures. Highs this afternoon will top out around 72.

Moisture will be on the increase this evening as a low pressure area will be located in Oklahoma late tonight. Low clouds should develop after midnight and southerly winds should keep the air well mixed overnight. With this in mind, I'll forecast a low of 61 tomorrow morning. The chance of a shower can't be completely ruled out overnight, but I think most areas will remain dry.

Tomorrow still looks like a rough day as a powerful storm system approaches the area. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear as this system will be impeded by any strong convection to our south. Given the forecast instability and wind shear, the chance for a severe weather is very high tomorrow. The good news is that this looks to be a daytime event for our area, but everyone should still be near a source of weather information. I'll try my best to post my thoughts later this afternoon or evening.